Bitcoin At Risk? Analyst Says Breaking This Price Level Could Spark Significant Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) has faced heightened volatility in recent weeks, initially driven by Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs and later exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation report sent BTC plummeting to as low as $94,000 before it managed to recover some losses. However, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin must defend a critical price level to avoid a significant correction.

In an X post shared earlier today, Martinez brought attention to the Pi Cycle Top Indicator. For the uninitiated, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a Bitcoin market tool that aims to identify market cycle peaks.

The indicator tracks the 111-day moving average (MA) and a multiple – typically 2x – of the 350-day moving average. When the 111-day MA crosses above the 2x 350-day MA, it historically signals a market top.

According to Martinez, Bitcoin tends to experience steep price corrections when it drops below the 111-day MA. Currently, this moving average stands at approximately $93,400. If BTC falls below this level, it could trigger a major downside move.

Fellow crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader shared their thoughts on the current BTC price action. The analyst shared the following chart which shows the similarity between BTC price action in 2021 and 2025.

According to the chart, BTC is currently in the midst of completing a bullish diamond pattern. A successful completion of this pattern followed by a bullish breakout may propel BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) beyond $120,000.

Crypto investor Daan Crypto Trades also analyzed Bitcoin’s latest price movement, particularly in response to the CPI data. The report confirmed that inflation remains hot in the US, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near future. Daan noted:

Most of the liquidity below was taken on the lower time frames. There’s a lot of untapped liquidity sitting higher after all these lower highs the past couple of weeks. If BTC can flip this local downtrend around, those could act as fuel for the move higher.

The investor also warned that if BTC slides below $90,000, it could enter a “danger zone.” This level has served as a key support area, with Bitcoin rebounding from it multiple times. A decisive break below it could increase the risk of a larger sell-off.

Despite the recent bearish developments, Bitcoin has held firm in the mid-$90,000 range. However, some market participants remain cautious about the possibility of a drop to $80,000 if selling pressure intensifies. At press time, BTC trades at $95,324, down 1% in the past 24 hours.