Bitcoin battles US sellers as CPI inflation sees first drop since mid-2024

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a classic Wall Street sell-off on Mar. 12 as bears tempered a welcome US inflation slowdown.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price reverses at key bull market trendline

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching three-day highs of $84,437 on Bitstamp before reversing.

The January print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations at 2.8%, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), hinting at slowing inflation.

“Core CPI inflation FALLS to 3.1%, below expectations of 3.2%,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter added in part of a response on X. 

“This marks the first decline in both Headline and Core CPI since July 2024. Inflation is cooling down in the US.”

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

However, the good news was short-lived as the start of Wall Street trading saw the return of characteristic selling pressure across crypto markets.

Bitcoin thus fell to $82,400 before consolidating, at the time of writing, circling the daily open.

In his latest market observations, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital saw reason for cautious optimism on BTC price performance.

“The latest Bitcoin Daily Close means that price has began the process of exiting its recently filled CME Gap after turning it into support,” he told X followers, referring to the difference between session closing and opening levels on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures — a common short-term price influence.

“Any dips into the top of the CME Gap would constitute a post-breakout retest attempt to fully confirm the exit from this CME Gap. Initial signs of that retest occurring already.”

CME Group Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages (SMA/EMA) — classic bull market support trendlines currently at $83,550 and $85,650, respectively.

“Bulls got work to do here to get back above the Daily 200MA/EMA. Last year we had the same thing and price chopped around these levels for 3+ months,” part of his latest X analysis noted.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200SMA, 200EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin ETF outflows point to “growing caution”

Continuing on the macro theme, trading firm QCP Capital suggested that the day’s CPI print could weigh on the Federal Reserve’s interest rates decision next week.

Related: Bitcoin whales hint at $80K ‘market rebound’ as Binance inflows cool

“With inflation concerns lingering and macro risks mounting, the CPI print will be a key determinant of whether the disinflationary trend will hold, or volatility intensifies in the near term,” it wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update.

QCP saw $82,000 solidifying as support, while institutional investor trends warranted caution.

“Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant net outflow of $153.87 million, led by Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which recently offloaded 641 BTC, valued at $56.45 million,” it concluded, referencing netflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

“This brought GBTC’s total holdings down to 195,746 BTC, worth around $17.24 billion. This signals growing caution among institutional investors.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.