Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40%

Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture.

While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change.

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants.

Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend.

The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections.

These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher.

The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully.

In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase.

This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge.

Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation.

From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery.

The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing.

Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com