Bitcoin Bearish Case: Continued Rejection At $100,000 Increases Likelihood Of Breakdown

Bitcoin has been faced with a challenging start to 2025 with a rejection at the $100,000 mark. Notably, Bitcoin has been unable to hold substantially above the $100,000 price level since it first broke through in early December, and multiple breakouts have been followed by rejections. The most recent rejection came last week when the price peaked at $102,000 on Monday, only to reverse sharply and fall to $92,000 by Thursday.

This continued tug-of-war has brought the bearish case for BTC into sharper focus, with technical analysis highlighting a 50/50 chance of a further drop or a bounce.

Recent Bitcoin price action has significantly put the $90,000 price point as the most notable support level for the bulls. Although the crypto has largely held above the $90,000 support level even during the recent corrections, the bearish outlook hinges on its ability to defend this level. 

According to technical analysis by crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin has made five different attempts to test a support trendline around $90,000, which further reveals the importance of the level. This repeated retest increases the chance of weakening the support strength and is gradually making Bitcoin more vulnerable to a sharp decline. 

With this in mind, the major task for Bitcoin bulls would be to hold above the $90,000 and break resistance levels above $100,000 in order to invalidate a bearish outlook. Should Bitcoin fall below $90,000, it could cascade to a further price drop to the $87,000 range or even lower. A fall below $87,000 could, in turn, cause a quick fall through a $12,000 gap to reach $75,000.

As noted by EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin could continue to pose a bearish threat until it closes above a few resistance levels. These resistance levels are situated at $103,000, $106,400, and $108,500, and consistent daily closes above these thresholds are required to confirm a bullish trend. The third resistance of $108,500 is the most notable, as a break above it would see Bitcoin trading at new all-time highs.

According to EGRAG CRYPTO, current technical indicators suggest that the chances of a pump are low at the moment. For instance, Bitcoin has now lost the support of the 21 EMA on the daily candlestick timeframe, and sentiment is now in a neutral zone on the Fear and Greed Index.

As it stands, the biggest factor that could see bullish momentum return to Bitcoin is the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20th and the anticipated crypto-positive policies that during the new administration. EGRAG CRYPTO notes that the event could either trigger a short-term rally or exacerbate the ongoing decline. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,400.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView