Bitcoin Bottom Not Here Yet? This Indicator Remains In Transition Phase

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin PnL Index is currently in a transition phase that has historically led into bottoms, but not immediately.

In a new post on X, community analyst Maartunn has talked the latest trend in the Bitcoin PnL Index, which combines the data of a few key on-chain metrics into one to produce a single valuation indicator for BTC.

The metrics include the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. The former two deal with unrealized investor gains/losses while the last one is related to the gains/losses that holders are realizing through their transactions.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin PnL Index over the history of the cryptocurrency:

As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day MA of the Bitcoin PnL Index has been following a consistent downtrend since Q4 2025, reflecting the bearish market shift.

So far, the indicator hasn’t left the positive territory, which suggests that, at least from the perspective of the metric, the cryptocurrency hasn’t yet become “undervalued.”

In the chart, it’s visible that historical bear market bottoms have generally occurred as the PnL Index has dropped into the red zone. Given this, it’s possible that a similar trend will play out in this cycle as well.

Though, something to keep in mind is that the current cycle has already differed from the previous ones in the bull market phase. Past cycles observed a single main peak in the PnL Index coinciding with the market top. This cycle, however, witnessed the formation of two similarly sized peaks occurring alongside the Q1 and Q4 2025 tops.

As such, it now remains to be seen how the indicator’s trajectory will look by the time this bear market has played out and whether it will be anything like that seen in the previous cycles.

In some other news, the recent bearish price action has meant that the Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) whales have fallen into a deep state of loss, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post.

The STH whales refer to the BTC investors carrying at least 1,000 tokens in their wallet who bought into the cryptocurrency within the past 155 days. Below is a chart that shows how the net profit/loss held by these humongous investors is looking right now.

“Short-Term Holder Whales are now sitting on -$16.4B in unrealized P&L, the deepest level of stress seen in this cycle,” noted Maartunn.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $61,700, down over 6% in the last seven days.