Bitcoin Bounce A Bull Trap? Analyst Sees 2022-Style Bear Flag

A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how the recent Bitcoin price action could echo the bear flag formation from the 2021-22 period.

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted a similarity that has been emerging between the Bitcoin price trend from 2021-22 and that from 2025-26.

Below is the chart shared by Martinez that puts the two periods side-by-side.

As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin saw a 54% drawdown during the first half of 2021, before witnessing another leg of the bull run to a new all-time high (ATH) above $69,000 later in the year.

This high was followed by a bearish shift, with the price quickly sliding off as 2022 arrived. In 2022, the cryptocurrency observed consolidation inside a technical analysis (TA) pattern known as a Bear Flag.

As the name suggests, Flag patterns look like a flag on a pole. In the case of a Bear Flag, the setup is oriented in the reverse direction; an initial sharp downward move represents the “pole,” while a parallel consolidation channel makes up for the “flag.”

When the asset is trading inside the flag, it finds support at the lower level of the channel and resistance at the upper one. A break out of either of these bounds can signal a sustained move in that direction.

Flags are considered to be continuation patterns, meaning that breakouts from them are likely to lead into the same direction as the preceding price trend. That is, a breakout could occur in the same direction as the pole.

From the chart, it’s apparent that this appears to be what happened with Bitcoin back in 2022, with the price escaping downward from the Bear Flag with a sharp crash.

Jumping to the recent Bitcoin price action, the cryptocurrency saw a similar trajectory in 2025 as in 2021, with an initial leg of the bull run leading to a second one that resulted in a new ATH (this time above $126,000). One difference, however, was that the legs of this bull market were separated by a price decline of just 30%.

Since the latest record, BTC has once again faced a bearish transition, with its price plummeting to a low in November and beginning a period of consolidation. The analyst thinks that the latest phase of sideways movement could be occurring inside a Bear Flag, similar to the one from 2022.

It now remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is indeed similar this time around as well or if the two cycles will diverge.

Bitcoin has seen a setback in its recovery as its price has dropped back to $91,000.