Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: $77K Breakout, 26.8% Weekly Surge, and $1B in ETF Inflows Fuel Bullish Momentum Toward $95K

The move has pushed the Bitcoin price to its highest level in roughly three months and brought the $80,000 area back into focus.

The latest advance follows a prolonged period of weakness. BTC had fallen below $60,000 in June after reaching a record above $126,000 in October 2025. The recent rebound has therefore marked a significant shift in short-term momentum, although technical indicators now show that the market is becoming stretched.

Bitcoin’s latest move follows a breakout from a multi-week range between approximately $60,000 and $67,500. Technical analyst GoldXpertise described the weekly structure as bullish following the breakout and identified $95,000 as the next major upside target if the move continues.

Bitcoin broke out of its multi-week $60K-$67.5K range, signaling bullish momentum and putting $95K in focus as the next major upside target. Source: @GoldXpertise via X

The analysis also points to $77,000-$79,500 as an important area for a potential retest. Rather than assuming that BTC will move vertically higher, the setup calls for confirmation around this zone. A sustained move through $80,000-$82,500 could provide additional evidence that the breakout has developed into a broader trend reversal.

Market data supports the significance of the move. Bitcoin climbed to nearly $79,500 on August 21 before settling around $77,400, according to recent market reports. The cryptocurrency’s weekly gain exceeded 23%, marking one of its strongest weekly performances in years.

The scale of the recent rally has attracted comparisons with previous major BTC price reversals.

Analyst Ali Charts compared Bitcoin’s August weekly candle, which gained about 26.8% from roughly $64,800 to $77,300, with large weekly advances recorded in 2019 and early 2023. Those earlier moves occurred around periods when BTC was recovering from major declines and transitioning into stronger market phases.

Bitcoin’s August 2026 weekly candle surged 26.81%, echoing 2019 and 2023 “God Candles” that historically marked the end of bear markets. Source: Ali Martinez via X

The comparison does not establish that Bitcoin will repeat the same cycle. However, it highlights how unusual the latest weekly move has been relative to recent trading conditions.

A major contributor appears to have been forced buying in the derivatives market. As BTC moved sharply higher, bearish positions were liquidated, adding further demand to the rally. Recent reports estimate that more than $4 billion in short positions were liquidated since the move accelerated on Wednesday.

This dynamic can produce rapid price increases because traders holding leveraged short positions are forced to buy BTC as their positions are closed. That buying can then accelerate the move and encourage additional market participants to reassess their positioning.

The latest Bitcoin price rally has also coincided with a significant improvement in ETF demand.

Glassnode data highlighted nearly $1 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over a three-day period. The firm described the streak as the strongest three-day inflow period since Bitcoin last traded above $80,000.

Bitcoin ETF Net Flows (daily). Source: Glassnode via X

Separate data from Farside Investors cited by Bitcoin Magazine showed more than $1 billion flowing into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over three days earlier in the week, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale products among those receiving substantial demand.

The broader weekly figures were even larger. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net inflows from Monday through Thursday, including $606 million on Thursday alone.

The renewed demand is important because spot Bitcoin ETFs provide traditional investors with regulated exposure to BTC without requiring direct custody of the underlying asset. Strong creations therefore offer a useful indicator of institutional interest, although ETF flows alone cannot determine the future direction of the Bitcoin price.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s breakout has improved the short-term structure, but the market is approaching an area where sellers could emerge.

TradingView’s technical readings show Bitcoin around $77,055, with the moving-average structure strongly favoring buyers. The 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages were all generating buy signals in the supplied snapshot. BTC was also trading above its 200-period EMA near $71,748, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

However, momentum indicators present a more cautious picture. The Relative Strength Index stood at 78, while the Commodity Channel Index was at 148. Both readings were flagged as sell signals, suggesting that Bitcoin had entered overbought territory after its rapid advance.

The Stochastic RSI and Williams Percent Range were also showing sell signals, while MACD and the Ultimate Oscillator remained supportive of positive momentum. The mixed readings explain why the overall technical gauge was neutral despite the strong moving-average trend.

The $80,000-$82,500 region therefore becomes an important test. Classic pivot calculations place resistance around $80,863, while Woodie pivots identify $76,597 as a resistance level that the price has already moved beyond. A sustained break above the $80,000 area could strengthen the case for a move toward the higher $95,000 target.

A pullback would not necessarily invalidate the broader bullish setup.

The supplied technical data places several moving averages between approximately $69,000 and $72,500. The 200-period EMA stands near $71,748, while the 20-period EMA is around $69,273. These levels could become important if Bitcoin retreats after its recent advance.

GoldXpertise’s technical framework similarly identifies $77,000-$79,500 as a potential retest area following the breakout. Holding that zone would allow the market to consolidate recent gains without immediately giving up the breakout structure.

A deeper decline toward $70,000-$72,500 would represent a larger retracement, but it would still leave BTC above several major moving averages in the current setup.

Another factor supporting the current BTC price prediction is the relatively limited depth of the latest cycle correction.

Bitcoin’s current cycle has seen just a 10%-15% drawdown, far milder than the over 80% troughs recorded in previous cycles. Source: Onchain Insights via X

Onchain Insights compared the current cycle to previous Bitcoin drawdowns and noted that the decline from the October 2025 cycle peak has been considerably shallower so far. The current drawdown reached roughly 10%-15%, compared with declines of more than 80% during some previous bear-market cycles.

That difference is notable because severe bear markets are typically accompanied by widespread capitulation, forced selling, and prolonged weakness. The comparatively modest drawdown suggests that the latest correction has not produced the same level of panic selling seen during previous major cycle downturns.

Still, a shallow drawdown should not automatically be interpreted as proof that a new long-term bull market has begun. Market structure can change quickly, particularly after an unusually rapid rally.

Bitcoin’s path toward $95,000 now depends on whether the cryptocurrency can convert its recent breakout into sustained support.

The immediate test is likely to come around $80,000-$82,500. A decisive move through that region would put the $95,000 target identified by GoldXpertise into focus. Conversely, rejection near resistance followed by a loss of the $77,000-$79,500 breakout zone could lead to consolidation or a deeper retracement.

The current evidence is mixed but constructive. ETF inflows have returned strongly, moving averages remain bullish, and the latest weekly candle shows powerful momentum. At the same time, overbought oscillators and the scale of the recent short squeeze suggest that BTC may need to consolidate before extending the advance.

For now, the $70,000-$72,500 region represents an important lower support area, while $80,000-$82,500 remains the key upside hurdle. If buyers can defend the breakout and establish BTC above that resistance, the $95,000 level becomes a technically relevant target rather than an immediate price forecast.

The setup remains dependent on confirmation. The recent rally has materially improved Bitcoin’s market structure, but sustaining those gains will be more important than the size of the initial breakout.