Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Can FOMC Signals and Whale Accumulation of 30K BTC Trigger a Rebound From the $64.8K Support Zone?

While the BTC price has slipped below $65,000, on-chain data shows large investors have continued to increase their holdings, suggesting confidence despite recent market weakness.

At the same time, investors are closely monitoring the June 17 FOMC meeting and comments from newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for clues about the future direction of monetary policy. With Bitcoin sitting near a major support area, the combination of macroeconomic developments and on-chain activity could shape the cryptocurrency’s next significant move.

The price of Bitcoin has retreated after failing to establish a foothold above the $67,000 resistance region. Following a strong recovery from the $60,000 area, BTC rallied toward $67,300 before encountering heavy selling pressure.

BTC is nearing the potential completion of a five-wave corrective decline on the H4 chart, with key support emerging around the $64,700 level. Source: FM-ForexMastermind on TradingView

The subsequent pullback has brought Bitcoin back to a crucial demand zone between $64,700 and $65,000. Technical analysts view this area as one of the most important short-term levels on the chart because it aligns with previous support, Fibonacci retracement levels, and a potential completion zone for a corrective Elliott Wave structure.

On the four-hour timeframe, market structure remains under pressure after a five-wave decline emerged from the recent highs. However, buyers have so far defended the lower boundary of the demand zone, preventing a deeper breakdown.

If BTC maintains support between $64,500 and $64,800, traders could look for a recovery toward the first resistance area at $65,500-$65,800. A stronger rebound may then open the door for a retest of the $67,000-$67,300 supply zone.

Conversely, a decisive close below $64,700 could weaken the recovery narrative and expose lower support levels near $63,300 and potentially $62,100.

While technical traders focus on support levels, macro investors are watching the latest Fed policy decision.

According to market pricing tracked by CME and Kalshi, investors entered the meeting expecting a very high probability that the Federal Funds Rate would remain unchanged within the 3.5%-3.75% range. As a result, market attention has shifted away from the rate decision itself and toward the Fed’s future guidance.

Markets expect the FOMC to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with investors closely watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks for insights into inflation and economic policy. Source: @TedPillows via X

Macro analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that traders are particularly focused on comments from Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair in May following his nomination by President Donald Trump.

“The market is not watching the hold. It is watching what comes next,” has become a common theme among traders heading into the meeting, reflecting growing interest in the Fed’s economic outlook, inflation projections, and updated policy path.

Any hawkish signals indicating concern about inflation could weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, a more balanced or dovish tone could provide support for a broader market recovery.

Despite short-term volatility, on-chain metrics indicate that large Bitcoin holders have been actively accumulating.

Market analyst Ali Martinez cited data from Santiment showing that Bitcoin whales added more than 30,000 BTC during the past week. Holdings among major wallet groups increased from approximately 4.23 million BTC to 4.27 million BTC between June 13 and June 17.

Santiment data shows Bitcoin whales accumulated more than 30,000 BTC over the past week, signaling growing confidence among large investors during the market’s recent consolidation. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Large-scale accumulation during periods of consolidation is often interpreted as a sign that sophisticated investors view current prices as attractive relative to longer-term expectations.

The latest buying activity is particularly notable because it occurred while Bitcoin traded near a key support zone and broader market sentiment remained cautious.

Although whale accumulation does not guarantee an immediate rally, it can reduce available supply and provide insight into how large investors are positioning themselves during periods of uncertainty.

Recent TradingView data paints a mixed picture for the Bitcoin technical analysis today outlook.

The overall indicator summary remains Neutral, though bearish signals continue to dominate moving averages.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $64,953, down 1.86% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin 

Among momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 40, suggesting weakening bullish momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The Stochastic %K reading is 69, while the Commodity Channel Index sits at -11, both remaining neutral.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures 39, indicating a meaningful trend is present, although not at an extreme level. Meanwhile, the MACD remains one of the few bullish indicators, generating a Buy signal despite broader market weakness.

Moving averages present a more cautious picture.

Bitcoin currently trades below several important averages, including:

• EMA 20: $66,429

• SMA 20: $65,597

• EMA 30: $68,139

• SMA 50: $73,214

• EMA 100: $72,978

• SMA 200: $77,268

This configuration suggests the broader trend remains under pressure until BTC can reclaim key resistance levels.

TradingView’s composite reading currently shows 14 Sell signals, 9 Neutral signals, and 3 Buy signals, reflecting a market that remains cautious but not overwhelmingly bearish.

Another metric attracting attention is Bitcoin’s Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model.

According to Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s previous major cycle bottoms have historically aligned with the CVDD level. The indicator currently sits near $48,000, substantially below the current Bitcoin price today but continuing to trend upward.

Bitcoin’s CVDD metric, currently near $48,000, continues to indicate a historically significant support level that previously coincided with major market bottoms. Source: Ali Martinez via X

CVDD measures the cumulative value of coin days destroyed relative to Bitcoin’s age and has historically served as a reference point for identifying long-term market bottoms.

While the metric does not predict short-term price movements, it suggests that Bitcoin remains well above a historically significant support area even after correcting from its 2025 highs above $100,000.

Bitcoin remains caught between competing forces. On one side, traders are watching a crucial support region near $64,800 as technical indicators remain mixed. On the other hand, substantial whale accumulation and stable long-term on-chain metrics suggest larger investors continue to see value in current levels.

The market’s immediate direction may depend on how investors interpret the latest FOMC guidance and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. For now, the $64,700-$65,000 zone remains the key battleground.

A successful defense of that area could allow BTC to challenge resistance levels near $65,800 and eventually $67,000. However, a breakdown below support would likely increase downside pressure and shift attention toward lower Fibonacci support zones.

As a result, the coming sessions could prove decisive for the next phase of the Bitcoin price prediction outlook.