Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: TD Sequential Sell Signal and Weak August History Raise Pullback Risks

The latest market snapshots show Bitcoin trading near $63,000–$64,000, with traders watching whether support around $62,800 can hold or whether another recovery attempt can reclaim resistance above $63,500. 

The warning signs do not establish that a Bitcoin crash is imminent. Instead, they point to a market where upside momentum remains fragile and where several technical levels could determine the next move. The broader Bitcoin price prediction therefore hinges on whether buyers can defend nearby support while overcoming resistance created by several moving averages.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: TD Sequential Sell Signal Raises Caution

A three-day Bitcoin chart has produced a TD Sequential sell setup near the $65,000 region. The signal, described as a 9 followed by 1, appeared after BTC had advanced toward the upper part of its recent trading range.

Bitcoin’s three-day chart has flashed a TD Sequential sell signal near $65,000, suggesting potential momentum exhaustion as BTC trades around $63,886. Source: Ali Martinez via X

The TD Sequential is a technical indicator designed to identify potential exhaustion in an existing price move. A sell setup does not guarantee that Bitcoin price will fall. Instead, it can alert traders that the prevailing advance may be losing momentum and that a period of consolidation or correction could follow.

BTC was around $63,886 in the late-July snapshot associated with the signal. That placed the cryptocurrency below the $65,000 area where the setup emerged.

The broader chart structure adds context. Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained move above the mid-$60,000s, while several technical averages remain above the current market price. That makes the $64,000–$65,000 region an important area for the short-term BTC price prediction.

A decisive recovery through that zone would weaken the immediate bearish interpretation of the TD Sequential signal. Conversely, continued rejection beneath it would leave the exhaustion warning relevant.

August Seasonality Adds to Bitcoin Price Forecast Risks

Seasonality is another factor drawing attention as August begins. Historical data referenced in the technical analysis shows Bitcoin declined by 13.88% in August 2022, 11.29% in August 2023, 8.60% in August 2024 and 6.49% in August 2025.

August has historically been a weaker month for Bitcoin, with CoinGlass data from 2013–2025 showing more negative than positive monthly returns. Source: Alan Rogers via X

Those four declines average approximately 10%, making the recent sequence notable. However, historical monthly performance alone is not enough to establish a Bitcoin price forecast for 2026.

Bitcoin’s returns vary substantially from year to year, and broader market conditions can overwhelm seasonal tendencies. The pattern is therefore better viewed as a risk factor than as a standalone Bitcoin prediction.

Recent market research also shows that August has attracted attention because of the contrast between July strength and historically weaker periods that have followed. TradingView News, citing historical analysis, has highlighted the possibility that a strong July can sometimes be followed by a weaker August, although such patterns are not guaranteed to repeat.

For the current Bitcoin price prediction, seasonality becomes more relevant if it coincides with technical weakness. A failure to reclaim resistance while August selling pressure develops could reinforce the case for a deeper retracement.

Bitcoin Price Today: $62,800 Support Comes Into Focus

The immediate BTC price structure remains relatively narrow. A TradingView technical setup identifies $62,800–$62,900 as the primary support zone, with $62,200 as the next level below it.

Bitcoin is undergoing a controlled retracement rather than heavy selling, with price approaching an ascending trendline that could provide technical support. Source: jimmy-trader1 on TradingView

The same analysis places immediate resistance at $63,500–$63,550. A sustained break above $63,550 would improve the short-term structure and potentially shift attention toward $63,900, $64,300 and $64,700.

This creates a relatively clear technical framework for Bitcoin price today.

A defense of $62,800 could allow buyers to attempt another move toward $63,500. If BTC breaks and holds above $63,550, the recovery could extend toward the higher levels.

On the other hand, a sustained move below $62,800 would weaken the recovery structure. A break beneath $62,200 would provide additional evidence that sellers are gaining control of the short-term trend.

The distinction between an intraday move and a confirmed break remains important. Bitcoin’s volatility can produce temporary moves through support or resistance without establishing a new trend.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Shows Mixed Momentum

TradingView’s technical readings provide a cautious backdrop to the latest BTC price action. The aggregate rating is Neutral, based on 14 sell signals, eight neutral readings and four buy signals across the indicator set.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

The oscillator group is also Neutral, with one sell, seven neutral and three buy signals.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is 44.99, placing momentum near the middle of its range. That reading does not indicate an overbought market and does not independently confirm a strong bearish trend.

Other indicators are more divided.

The Stochastic %K is 12.45, while Stochastic RSI Fast is 2.08, both showing deeply subdued momentum readings. The Williams %R is -84.06, generating a buy signal in the cited technical framework, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) is -126.35, also registering a buy signal.

The Average Directional Index (ADX 14) stands at 15.42, suggesting relatively limited trend strength. Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator is 22.40 and neutral.

Momentum indicators are not uniformly supportive. The Momentum (10) reading is -2,083.84, which registers as a buy in the cited framework, while MACD Level (12,26) is -133.72 and signals Sell.

Taken together, these readings describe a market with weak directional conviction rather than a clean bearish breakdown. Some indicators point to oversold conditions, while MACD and other measures show that underlying momentum remains under pressure.

Moving Averages Keep Bitcoin Price Under Pressure

The moving-average structure is more cautious than the overall Neutral rating suggests.

The technical framework records 13 sell signals, one neutral reading and one buy signal among the moving averages. Most major averages remain above the current BTC price.

The 10-day EMA is $63,719.68, while the 10-day SMA is $63,843.72. Both generate Sell signals. The 20-day EMA is $63,907.27, and the 20-day SMA is $64,407.25, also pointing to resistance overhead.

The pattern continues through the intermediate averages. The 30-day EMA is $63,989.81, the 30-day SMA is $64,048.26, and the 50-day EMA is $64,655.57. Each is positioned above the market and carries a Sell signal.

The 50-day SMA at $63,334.60 is particularly relevant because it sits close to the current BTC price.

The longer-term averages show a much wider gap. The 100-day EMA is $67,209.01, while the 100-day SMA is $68,749.57. The 200-day EMA is $72,828.02, and the 200-day SMA is $71,124.93.

The Ichimoku Base Line stands at $64,200.74 and is Neutral, while the 20-period VWMA at $64,516.48 produces a Sell signal. The 9-period Hull Moving Average at $62,822.28 is the only moving-average measure in the cited set generating a Buy signal.

This leaves Bitcoin facing several layers of potential resistance between approximately $63,700 and $64,700 before the market reaches the substantially higher 100- and 200-day averages.

Pivot Levels Define the Broader Range

Pivot calculations provide additional reference points for the BTC price forecast.

The classic pivot is $62,491.11, placing it just below the $62,800–$62,900 support zone identified in the short-term setup. Classic resistance levels are positioned at $67,247.59, $71,677.22 and $80,863.33, while support levels stand at $58,061.48, $53,305 and $44,118.89.

The Fibonacci pivot framework places the central pivot at the same $62,491.11 level. Its first resistance is around $66,000.20, followed by $68,168.13 and $71,677.22.

On the downside, Fibonacci support levels appear around $58,982.02, $56,814.09 and $53,305.

These levels should not be interpreted as fixed Bitcoin price targets. Instead, they offer reference zones that can help frame potential market reactions if BTC moves beyond its current range.

A sustained break below $62,500 would therefore become technically more significant because it would place BTC beneath both the central classic pivot and the nearby trend-support structure.

By contrast, reclaiming $64,200 would represent a more meaningful improvement because it would bring price back above the Ichimoku Base Line and closer to the short-term moving-average cluster.

Bitcoin Sentiment Hits a New Low After Coldcard Incident

Technical indicators are not the only source of caution. Bitcoin market sentiment has also deteriorated sharply following reports surrounding a Coldcard firmware vulnerability.

Bitcoin’s social sentiment hit a record low, with just 0.58 bullish comments per bearish comment following the Coldcard firmware exploit. Source: Santiment Intelligence via X

Santiment reported that Bitcoin recorded its lowest positive-to-negative commentary ratio across its social-media tracking history, with only 0.58 bullish comments for every 1.00 bearish comment in the measured sample. The company said the reading reflected discussions surrounding the Coldcard incident and broader concerns about the security of self-custody.

The incident is particularly sensitive because hardware wallets are widely used to keep private keys away from internet-connected systems. Concerns about seed generation can therefore affect perceptions of self-custody beyond the specific devices or firmware versions involved.

Reporting around the incident has focused on older Coldcard devices and weaknesses associated with seed generation. However, the exact scope and affected configurations have been the subject of ongoing investigation, so claims about the number of affected wallets or BTC involved should be treated carefully.

The event also highlights an important distinction for the Bitcoin price prediction: negative social sentiment does not automatically translate into proportional selling of BTC. Sentiment can deteriorate rapidly during a security incident and later recover as additional information becomes available.

Santiment itself noted that its 0.58 ratio was based on a one-day sample, meaning the reading should not be treated as a permanent measure of Bitcoin market sentiment.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Comes Next for BTC?

The current Bitcoin price prediction is shaped by several competing signals.

The TD Sequential sell setup near $65,000 raises the possibility of exhaustion following the recent advance. August’s recent history also provides a cautionary seasonal backdrop, with BTC recording declines in each of the previous four Augusts cited in the analysis.

At the same time, Bitcoin is not displaying an across-the-board bearish technical structure. RSI at 44.99 remains neutral, while CCI at -126.35 and Williams %R at -84.06 point toward oversold conditions. The ADX reading of 15.42 also indicates that the market lacks a strong directional trend at the cited timeframe.

The moving averages present the clearest technical obstacle. BTC remains below most short- and medium-term averages, including the 10-day, 20-day, 30-day and 50-day measures. A recovery above the $63,700–$64,700 resistance cluster would therefore be an important development for bulls.

On the downside, $62,800–$62,900 is the first support area to monitor, followed by $62,200 and the broader pivot around $62,491.

A sustained break below those levels could increase the probability of a move toward the upper-$50,000s, where the classic and Fibonacci pivot systems identify additional support. Conversely, a successful defense of support followed by a reclaim of $63,550 could revive the short-term recovery scenario, with $63,900, $64,300 and $64,700 becoming the next reference levels.

For now, the evidence points to a neutral-to-cautious Bitcoin price outlook rather than a confirmed Bitcoin crash. The TD Sequential warning and August seasonality increase the risk of a pullback, but neither is sufficient on its own to establish the next BTC trend. Price behavior around $62,800 support and the $63,500–$64,700 resistance band should provide clearer evidence of whether Bitcoin is preparing for another recovery attempt or entering a deeper correction.