Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Will FOMC Volatility Break Bitcoin Out of Its $76K Standoff?

The Bitcoin price has pulled back sharply from its recent highs while the upcoming FOMC decision could introduce a fresh volatility catalyst. A 4-hour TD Sequential buy signal offers a potential counterpoint to the recent weakness, but Bitcoin’s reaction around $74,000-$78,000 remains critical.

Bitcoin traded around $75,900-$76,000 on September 16 after falling nearly 4% in the previous session. The decline came as investors digested the U.S. Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act while also positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. Reuters reported that Bitcoin was around $75,954 on Wednesday after its previous-day decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

The move leaves the price of Bitcoin well below the $80,000 threshold that had acted as an important psychological level during the recent recovery. Bitcoin had also climbed above $82,000 earlier in September before reversing lower, according to recent market reporting.

The immediate technical picture is therefore mixed. Bitcoin remains above several longer-term moving averages, but shorter-term indicators have deteriorated. This has created a narrow decision zone around the mid-$70,000s ahead of the Fed announcement.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its September policy decision at 2 p.m. ET on September 16, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The meeting runs from September 15-16 and is accompanied by updated economic projections.

Today’s FOMC meeting on September 16 will center on the 2 p.m. ET rate decision, updated economic projections, policy statement, and especially the dot plot for clues on the Fed’s future policy path. Source: @MarzellCrypto via X

Current market reporting points to a 25-basis-point rate increase being widely anticipated. Reuters reported that markets were pricing roughly a 92.7% probability of a quarter-point hike ahead of the decision. The report also noted that the 10-year Treasury yield had recently moved above 5%, adding to the broader tightening in financial conditions.

That makes the Fed’s communication particularly important for Bitcoin. If the decision and accompanying guidance reinforce expectations for further tightening, higher yields could maintain pressure on risk-sensitive assets. Conversely, a policy message that investors interpret as less restrictive could alter expectations for liquidity and provide room for a relief move across risk markets.

As Reuters noted, the key issue for markets is not simply the rate decision but also the Fed’s guidance and reaction function.

Against the macro uncertainty, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a TD Sequential buy signal on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart.

According to the analysis, three previous occurrences of the same setup were followed by rebounds of approximately 6.98%, 1.90%, and 4.36%. The current signal appeared with Bitcoin trading around $75,898.

The TD Sequential has flashed a buy signal on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart just ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Source: Ali Martinez via X

A TD Sequential signal is designed to identify potential points of trend exhaustion. It does not guarantee a reversal, particularly when a major macroeconomic event is approaching.

That distinction is important in the current environment. The indicator provides a technical signal suggesting that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion, while the FOMC decision introduces a separate fundamental catalyst capable of overwhelming short-term chart patterns.

TradingView’s latest technical summary places Bitcoin at approximately $76,015 with an overall Neutral rating. The reading combines 10 sell signals, nine neutral readings and seven buy signals.

The oscillator group is also neutral. Bitcoin’s 14-period RSI stands near 47, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Stochastic %K is around 17, while Williams %R is near -94, placing several momentum measures close to weaker territory without establishing a uniform reversal signal.

At the same time, Momentum and MACD are producing sell signals. Momentum is around -4,965, while the MACD level is approximately 960. These readings point to recent downside pressure even though the broader indicator group has not shifted decisively bearish.

The result is a market with conflicting signals: short-term momentum has weakened, but the broader technical structure has not yet broken down.

Moving averages provide a clearer map of the current BTC price structure.

Bitcoin remains below several short-term averages, including the 10-day EMA near $77,050, the 10-day SMA around $77,278, and the 20-day EMA near $76,820. The 20-day SMA is higher at approximately $78,046.

The $74K level remains a critical support for BTC ahead of the FOMC decision. Source: Gentlemen047 on TradingView

The $76,800-$78,000 region therefore represents an important recovery zone. A sustained move back above those averages would improve the short-term structure and could indicate that buyers are beginning to regain control.

The longer-term picture is different. Bitcoin remains above its 50-day EMA near $73,532, 100-day EMA around $71,345, and 200-day EMA near $73,080. This helps explain why the overall TradingView rating remains neutral rather than shifting entirely toward a sell reading.

The classic pivot is around $74,081. A sustained move below this level would place greater attention on the $66,700-$70,000 region, where several longer-term technical supports are clustered.

Institutional flows have also become less supportive during Bitcoin’s recent pullback.

Glassnode’s U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF data tracks net flows across products including BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, ARKB and several other funds. Its methodology uses ETF issuer data and calculates changes in holdings to estimate daily net flows.

Bitcoin ETFs have flipped back to net outflows after a three-week buying streak, with no renewed ETF demand emerging during the latest BTC dip. Source: Glassnode via X

The broader Glassnode market assessment published September 14 said Bitcoin had slipped to around $76,800, down 4.4% for the week, while spot and perpetual selling and ETF outflows were weighing on the market. At the same time, Glassnode described the market as absorbing pressure rather than clearly breaking down.

Recent daily data illustrates the uneven flow picture. September recorded both substantial inflows and outflows, including a $730.9 million inflow on September 3 followed by several sessions of withdrawals.

This matters because ETF demand had previously coincided with Bitcoin’s move toward the $80,000-$95,000 area. The subsequent weakening of flows removes one source of support just as BTC tests lower levels.

The immediate upside question is whether Bitcoin can recover the short-term moving-average cluster between roughly $76,800 and $78,000.

A successful reclaim would put the price back above several short-duration trend measures. The next broader technical reference from the supplied TradingView analysis is the Fibonacci resistance near $81,430, followed by the recent area around $82,000-$82,200.

The downside structure is more clearly defined around $74,000. Losing that level would weaken the current consolidation and bring the $66,700 support region into focus.

Classic pivot calculations place additional support at $66,706, while the next major levels sit much lower at $54,842 and $35,603. These are longer-term reference points rather than immediate targets.

For the current Bitcoin price prediction, the $74,000-$78,000 band therefore represents the most relevant technical battlefield.

Bitcoin enters the FOMC decision with technical and fundamental signals pulling in different directions.

The 4-hour TD Sequential buy signal identified by Ali Martinez suggests the recent decline could be approaching a potential exhaustion point. Historical examples cited with the signal produced rebounds ranging from 1.90% to 6.98%, although those past outcomes do not establish what will happen in the current market.

Meanwhile, ETF flows have become less consistently supportive, short-term moving averages remain bearish, and Bitcoin is still below the $78,000 area. The longer-term moving-average structure, however, continues to provide support above the low-$70,000s.

That leaves the FOMC decision as a potential catalyst for a larger move from the current range. A sustained recovery through $78,000 would improve the short-term technical picture and place $81,400-$82,000 back on the radar. A break below the $74,000 pivot would instead expose the $66,700-$70,000 support region.

The first reaction to the Fed announcement may be volatile, making the subsequent price close and follow-through more informative than an initial spike. For now, Bitcoin remains in a $76,000 standoff, with the FOMC decision arriving as the market searches for its next clear direction.