Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Drops To Deepest Level Since FTX Bottom

On-chain data shows CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has witnessed a deep plunge into the bearish territory recently.

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. This metric tells us, as its name suggests, about the market phase that the cryptocurrency is currently inside.

The indicator is based on another CryptoQuant metric called the P&L Index, which combines the data of key on-chain indicators to build a single valuation index for Bitcoin. More specifically, the metrics that the P&L Index uses are the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR.

The MVRV Ratio and NUPL both deal with unrealized network profits/losses, while the LTH/STH SOPR with profits/losses being realized by the investors through their transactions.

According to CryptoQuant, the P&L Index’s interactions with its 365-day MA signal whether the asset is switching to a bull or bear market. Breaks above the MA indicate that the cryptocurrency is moving into a bullish regime, while falls below it can signal a bearish transition.

The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tracks the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA to showcase whether the market is transitioning or if the metric is valued at an extreme.

Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Maartunn that shows how its value has changed over the past decade:

As displayed in the above graph, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator plunged into the region below zero during the last few months of 2025, suggesting that the P&L Index crossed below its 365-day MA.

As mentioned earlier, such a crossover is a sign of a bearish shift. Since the indicator has gone into this zone, its value has only fallen deeper as the cryptocurrency has seen its negative price action. Following the most recent drop, the metric has hit low levels not seen since the 2022 bear market bottom that followed the FTX crash.

The trend is an indication that the P&L Index is approaching an extreme point below the 365-day MA. In the past, market lows have generally been reached alongside such values on the index.

That said, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has usually spent a bit of time in the “extreme bear” zone before the cryptocurrency has found a reversal. It now remains to be seen how long the metric will take this time around.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,000, down 4% in the last seven days.