Bitcoin ETFs Are “Important, But Not The Drivers,” On-Chain Analyst Argues

An on-chain analyst has explained why the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although important, may be something other than the drivers in the market.

In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate has discussed how the different capital flows in and out of Bitcoin stack up against each other. The first netflow of interest is naturally the total capital netflow itself.

This netflow is calculated using the Realized Cap indicator. The Realized Cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the asset’s total valuation by assuming that the “real” price of any coin in circulation was the price at which it was last moved on the network.

The last transaction of any token was likely the last time it changed hands, so the price at its time would make up for its current cost basis. As the Realized Cap essentially sums up the cost basis of every coin in circulation, it tells us about the amount of capital the investors have used to purchase the cryptocurrency.

Therefore, the changes in this metric would reflect the incoming or outgoing capital from the sector. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the monthly version of this netflow has looked like for Bitcoin during the past year.

As the graph shows, the change in the Bitcoin Realized Cap has been positive for almost this period, suggesting that a net amount of fresh capital has only been flowing into the asset. Currently, BTC is observing net inflows worth $12 billion per month.

Checkmate has also attached the data for the flows related to the spot ETFs in the same chart. The green curve represents the monthly change for the ETFs excluding GBTC, while the red one corresponds to the GBTC outflows.

The former stands at a positive $3.7 billion per month, while the latter is at a negative $0.93 billion per month. The capital flows related to these financial instruments don’t make up for anywhere near most of the market. “At best, the ETFs are 20% of the influence,” notes the analyst. “They are important, but not the driver.”

The final metric in the chart is related to the supply change of the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), who are the investors holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.

It would appear that these HODLers had been selling earlier in the year. Still, recently, their supply change has again flipped into positive territory, with their combined balance now growing at a rate of $1.6 billion per month.

In a sharp move up, Bitcoin has recovered beyond the $61,300 mark during the past day.