Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index At COVID- And LUNA-Crash Low — What’s Next?

The price of Bitcoin put in another interesting performance over the past week, as the global uncertainty continued in the broader financial markets. However, the $74,000 resistance level proved to be unyielding yet again, as the premier cryptocurrency made a fresh play for it as the weekend approached.

The investor sentiment in the Bitcoin market seems to be worsening with time, while the bullish momentum appears to be waning after the latest rejection. In fact, recent on-chain data shows that the sentiment is at a low not seen in nearly four years.

In a March 13 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr revealed that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has continued its descent over the past few weeks. The Fear and Greed Index is an on-chain indicator that measures sentiment in the crypto market and reflects some aspect of investor behavior.

Typically, the index ranges from 0 to 100 (often in percentage), with higher values often signaling extreme greed and overheating market conditions. Meanwhile, a lower value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index suggests extreme fear and skepticism among investors.

According to CryptoQuant’s data shared by Adler Jr, the 30-day average Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 10%, a level of pessimism seen during the market-wide crash brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapse. As observed in the chart below, the metric has been on a downturn since reaching a peak above the 75th percentile in late 2025.

Adler Jr. wrote on X:

Sentiment is now deeply compressed. For market structure to stabilize, Bitcoin likely needs to reclaim higher price levels.

While an upturn in price performance might be critical in improving the market sentiment, the current level of the Fear and Greed Index might provide insight into Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. From a historical perspective, the premier cryptocurrency has often shown the tendency to bounce back when the market sentiment is at its lowest.

During the COVID-19 crash, the Bitcoin price rebounded from around $5,000 to a new all-time high after the Fear and Greed Index fell to around 10%. In 2022, though, the price of BTC did not reach a bottom until after the collapse of the FTX exchange (a few months after the index reached the 10% level).

In essence, the Fear and Greed Index being this low could imply that the market leader has either reached or is near its bottom.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $71,262, reflecting an over 1% jump in the past 24 hours.