Bitcoin Fills CME Gap Between $78,000 and $80,000 – Is A Reversal Around The Corner?

Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $80,000 for the first time in over three months. According to data from Binance, BTC hit a low of $78,258, filling the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between $78,000 and $80,000.

With today’s dip, BTC has now filled every CME gap since March 2024. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading in the low $80,000 range.

For the uninitiated, the CME gap refers to the price difference that occurs on the CME Bitcoin futures chart between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price, as CME does not trade on weekends. These gaps are often filled later as Bitcoin’s price naturally retraces to these levels, acting as key support or resistance zones.

A new CME gap has now emerged due to the ongoing market sell-off, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s confirmation that trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico will take effect on March 4.

According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the new CME gap lies between $92,800 and $94,000. If past data is anything to go by, this new CME gap may work as a price magnet, pulling BTC upward and initiating a bullish trend reversal.

For example, back in January 2021, BTC filled a CME gap between $29,410 and $33,050. After filling the gap, BTC continued to dip further, before surging to as high as $40,000. 

That said, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors remain significant. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Trump continue to clash over interest rate policies. While the Fed has maintained that it is in no rush to cut rates, Trump has repeatedly called for immediate reductions.

However, positive inflation data could pressure the Fed to accelerate rate cuts. According to an X post by The Kobeissi Letter, January’s PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure – aligned with its projection of 2.5%.

Similarly, core inflation – which measures the change in consumer prices excluding volatile items like food and energy – was in-line with expectations of 2.6% as well. However, data from CME FedWatch suggests that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 19 FOMC meeting.

Although BTC has fallen nearly 20% over the past month, some analysts believe further downside may still be ahead. A recent forecast from Standard Chartered suggests BTC could decline another 10% before finding support.

However, there are also signs that BTC may be forming a local bottom. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that sell-side pressure is easing, which could indicate that BTC is stabilizing.

Additionally, the Cryptoasset Sentiment Index recently flashed a strong contrarian buy signal, further hinting at a potential price floor for BTC. At press time, BTC trades at $83,508, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours.