Bitcoin Fractal Hints Next Cycle Bottom To Form Around $45K — Here’s When

The price of Bitcoin has continued to struggle under the psychological $90,000 level during the Christmas season, reflecting the sluggish climate of the crypto market. While the premier cryptocurrency and the rest of the crypto market floundered, other asset classes enjoyed significant Christmas season rallies.

These recent performances suggest that the Bitcoin price might indeed be at the beginning of a bear market. According to the latest on-chain data, the price of BTC might be heading down to as low as $41,500 in the imminent period of extended downward movement.

In a new post on the X platform, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson has put forward a target and timeline for the Bitcoin price in the coming bear season. According to the on-chain expert, the market leader’s price could form its next cycle bottom around early October 2026.

This projection is based on the Repetition Fractal Cycle chart, which portrays how market patterns and price movements repeat themselves on different scales. Using investor behavioral patterns, this chart helps to predict price tops and bottoms across different timeframes.

As shown in the chart above, a 4-year cycle is marked by various periods, starting with accumulation, then markup and distribution, before ending with the bear market. Wedson revealed that the most favorable time window for the next accumulation phase would likely be between October 6, 2026, and October 16, 2026, according to historical cycle symmetry.

The Alphractal founder added that the price target for Bitcoin by the start of this accumulation phase is between $41,500 and $45,000. In essence, the bear market phase, which the premier cryptocurrency seems to only be at the start of, could see the price of BTC fall as much as 50% from the current price point.

Wedson warned in his post:

This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles — something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored. Markets do not repeat exactly — but they rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency.

If the price of Bitcoin goes to around $45,000 from the current point, it would represent a roughly 65% decline from the cycle top. This is significantly lower than the over 75% correction seen in the last bear market in 2022.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $87,550, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.