Bitcoin Funding Rate Flips Again And History Says A Rally Is Around The Corner

Bitcoin’s price has declined slightly following recent gains, falling 2.3% over the past 24 hours to trade at approximately $107,205. This latest movement places the asset 4.1% below its all-time high of over $111,000 recorded last month.

Despite the short-term dip, some analysts see familiar signs in derivatives data that could point to the next phase of market movement.

According to recent insights shared by on-chain analyst “nino” on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, Bitcoin may be repeating a funding rate pattern that has historically led to price rebounds.

The data shows the asset’s funding rate briefly dipping into negative territory before beginning to reverse, a pattern that has aligned with price recoveries earlier in the year.

Nino’s analysis suggests this reversal, particularly the 72-hour moving averages exiting the oversold zone and producing a yellow-blue-black signal formation, could indicate a potential round of short position liquidations.

The funding rate, still below levels typically associated with excessive bullish sentiment, may also imply that traders have yet to become overconfident, leaving room for additional upside without immediate overheating in derivatives markets.

Nino’s observation focuses on market structure and derivative sentiment, highlighting how positioning in perpetual futures markets could precede notable spot price moves.

In particular, when funding rates turn negative and then begin to climb, they often reflect the unwinding of overly bearish bets by traders who shorted BTC at high leverage. As these traders are forced to close positions, the resulting buy pressure can act as a short-term catalyst.

This setup has played out multiple times earlier in 2025, and the current conditions suggest it may be occurring again. By keeping track of moving averages and sentiment zones, traders may interpret these signals as part of a broader cyclical trend.

Separately, another analyst from CryptoQuant, Burak Kesmeci, addressed structural shifts in spot trading liquidity, particularly Binance’s share of global trading volume.

Kesmeci emphasized that Binance’s dominance remains an important barometer of institutional participation and overall market health. He explained that an increase in Binance’s spot volume share is often associated with higher liquidity and smoother price discovery.

Conversely, if Binance were to fall below a 30% volume threshold, it could signal a move toward more “fragmented liquidity” across exchanges such as Coinbase or Upbit. Such shifts could lead to more volatility and less predictable trading behavior.

At present, Binance’s volume share is showing signs of recovery, suggesting that capital is still flowing through the exchange and supporting a relatively stable trading environment.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView