Bitcoin Is Headed For $40,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC

A crypto analyst has warned against giving in to the FOMO and buying Bitcoin (BTC) at new highs. He noted that although the cryptocurrency could continue its upward move and even push past $80,000, this does not necessarily signal the end of the broader bear market. Instead, he argues that the move could be a strong distribution phase, leading to further declines. He also projects that Bitcoin could still experience a deeper correction, with a potential market bottom forming near $40,000.  

@Sherlockwhale, a crypto market analyst on X, is sounding the alarm for traders who believe Bitcoin could glide smoothly past the $83,000-$88,000 price range without encountering resistance. According to him, this zone exhibits more sell pressure than any other level in BTC’s current chart structure. 

The analyst based his view on a broader Fibonacci retracement structure drawn from Bitcoin’s past move between $97,000 and $60,000. He described this range as a full impulse wave to the downside, followed by a recovery phase where the price has been making higher rebounds but still facing sharp pullbacks.

From this structure, @Sherlockwhales identified key upside levels on BTC’s chart at $83,435 (0.618 Fib), $84,647 (0.65 Fib), and $89,797 (0.786 Fib). He noted that this cluster forms a major untested resistance zone on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. According to him, untested resistance areas like these tend to attract heavier sell pressure because traders who bought at those levels are still underwater and may look to exit as the price returns toward breakeven.

Further explaining, @Sherlockwhales stated that the average cost basis for all US Spot Bitcoin ETF holders is currently $87,830. This means that investors who bought the ETF over the past two years are still holding substantial unrealized losses, with BTC currently trading below their entry level. According to the analyst, this makes the $87,000 to $88,000 range an important psychological level for the market. 

He noted that if Bitcoin returns to this upper range, many ETF investors would reach breakeven for the first time in months. He added that this could trigger increased selling pressure, as investors who have been in pain since its ATH in October 2025 may choose to sell their coins to recover past losses. 

Similarly, @Sherlockwhales noted that the short-term holder cost basis currently sits around $80,100. He explained that whenever Bitcoin moved above this basis, it formed a local top because short-term holders took the opportunity to exit the market at a profit. The analyst emphasized that this pattern has already played out twice, each time leading to a sharp price breakdown. He now warns that if BTC experiences another upward rally toward $80,000, it could fuel another wave of selling pressure and potentially lead to a similar pullback. 

Because @Sherlockwhales believes most underwater investors would sell their coins for a profit at upper resistance levels, he warns traders not to buy BTC around $85,000, suggesting it could be a bull trap. He predicts that the Bitcoin price could crash toward $40,000, possibly marking its final bottom before a new bull trend begins.

Rather than buying at $85,000, the analyst urges investors to wait until October before entering the market. He noted that prices during this time window would present the most favorable long-term buying opportunity for traders.