Bitcoin Market Cycle Indicator Hints At Bullish Breakout Ahead, Analyst Says

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkemeci, Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to show signs of a trend reversal after weeks of downward movement. Notably, BTC surged past $100,000 yesterday for the first time since February 3.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $100,000, approximately 5.2% below its all-time high (ATH) of $108,786, set earlier this year on January 20. The leading cryptocurrency has staged an impressive rebound of over 20% from its recent low of $74,508 recorded on April 6.

In their analysis, crypto analyst burakkemeci referred to the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, saying that it is flashing the early signs of a potential bullish trend reversal. The analyst noted:

With Bitcoin surging back above $100K, the indicator has started flashing bullish signals again – for the first time in weeks. Although the signal is still weak (coefficient: 0.029), the mere appearance of a positive shift is encouraging.

To explain, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is an on-chain tool that tracks long-term and short-term market sentiment by comparing price momentum and investor behavior trends. It uses two key components – the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MA) – to identify shifts between bull and bear cycles.

Importantly, the analyst pointed out that the Bull-Bear 30-day MA has started to turn upward. If this metric crosses above the 365-day MA, historical trends suggest Bitcoin could enter a phase of parabolic price growth.

Recent macroeconomic developments may further support the bullish narrative for Bitcoin. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, recently highlighted the relationship between the global M2 money supply and the price of BTC.

Bittel shared a chart that overlays BTC’s price with the M2 money supply, adjusted with a 12-week lag. The data reveals a steep increase in global liquidity since early 2025, implying that BTC could follow this trend and continue rising in the months ahead.

Despite recent strength, not all signals are bullish. Analysts caution that the current rally has been accompanied by aggressive profit-taking, increasing the chances of a local top forming.

Further, recent analysis shows that BTC’s Demand Momentum is yet to come out of negative territory. The analyst noted that such market behavior is mostly prevalent during late-cycle distribution phases or macro-level consolidation periods.

That said, Bitcoin’s Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is beginning to reflect renewed bullish momentum. At press time, BTC trades at $103,444, up 4% in the past 24 hours.