Bitcoin Market Faces Structural Reset As ETF Outflows Begin To Stabilize

After reaching an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a deep correction phase, pushing prices to around $60,000 in early February. According to crypto market analysis firm XWIN Research Japan, these last bearish months have marked a structural re-evaluation phase for the leading cryptocurrency. 

While the consensus market sentiment remains bearish, data from certain supply-side indicators suggest an exhaustion of selling pressure. Notably, XWIN Research Japan shares an insightful analysis of the Bitcoin market balance, based on data from two key on-chain metrics.

In their latest QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan employs data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserves and ETF Inflows to properly assess market demand and supply, and ascertain the current phase of the market. Using information from charts shared by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, the analysts report that Bitcoin exchange reserves have recorded a steady decline since 2024. This indicates that investors increasingly leaned towards holding their assets in private storage rather than opting for a potential sale.

In other words, market supply over the last two years has also gradually reduced. The majority of this period has been matched by an equal or higher demand, as illustrated by an observed price gain of over 200% during this period. One major factor behind this price rise is the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, with a current cumulative total net inflows of $55.37 billion and net assets of $87.07 billion within two years of launch. However, after hitting its most recent all-time high, the Bitcoin Spot ETFs began experiencing a decline in holdings.

Notably, data from SoSoValue shows these Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $6.38 billion in net outflows between November and February, indicating a drastic fall in institutional demand, which significantly influenced the Bitcoin correction. According to XWIN Research Japan, this observation further strengthens the Bitcoin Spot ETF as a structural driver in the present market cycle.

However, ETF outflows have stabilized in recent times, with large net outflows coming to a halt as most institutional investors appear to have completed rebalancing their portfolios. In particular, the last two trading weeks have resulted in combined net inflows of $1.36 billion. Nevertheless, XWIN Research Japan remains in a supply-demand rebalancing phase, and a sustained rise in ETF holdings is needed to reassess market direction.

At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $67,372 after a 4.34% gain in the last month.