Bitcoin May See Selloff If $100,000 Support Fails — Here’s Why

After a short-lived display of bullish momentum, where price returned as high as about $116,000 after the tariff-induced flash crash, Bitcoin’s price has maintained a sharp downward trend in the third week of October. More shockingly, on-chain data has surfaced that paints a pessimistic yet uncertain picture of the cryptocurrency’s future.

In a recent X post on Friday, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno shared insights from his technical analysis of the Bitcoin price action. Moreno highlighted that Bitcoin’s most recent break beneath what was a price consolidation range of $120,000-$108,000 has caused a shift of attention towards $100,000 as the next critical level.

The crypto analyst defended his report with the Bitcoin Trader On-chain Realized Price Bands metric, which measures the lower boundary of the average on-chain acquisition cost for Bitcoin short-term holders. Simply, this metric helps identify the price level that would act as support in cases where the price experiences corrective movement.

From the chart shared above, $100.9k is currently the lower boundary of the average trader realized price, one that Moreno expects could serve as a support zone.

Aside from technical analysis and on-chain activity, $100,000 is also a significant psychological price level, as it serves as the hallmark where Bitcoin enters a six-figure valuation. If the Bitcoin price were to fall to levels as low as $100,000, the strong psychological backing by market participants could translate to its price action. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency could see temporary relief from the bearish pressure that it is currently under.

As was previously mentioned, $100,000 stands as a significant level for the Bitcoin price, with psychology and technical analysis coming together to reinforce its importance.

Derivable from Moreno’s post is the conjecture that if the $100,000 support were to hold, Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment among market participants could be renewed, thus setting the pace for the flagship cryptocurrency’s recovery towards its current all-time-high price. 

On the other hand, the failure of this important price level could carry grave implications, especially for short-term holders. A break in this psychological support could trigger a sharp sentiment shift amongst Bitcoin market participants, causing them to sell their holdings to minimize losses or escape with some profits. 

Interestingly, the 365-day Moving Average (MA) sits around the $100,000 psychological support. For context, the 365-day MA is a technical indicator that shows Bitcoin’s average closing price over the past year. By extension of its primary function, the indicator is used to gauge Bitcoin’s direction in the long term.

If Bitcoin should therefore slip beneath its 365-day MA of $100,000, it could be a sign that the digital asset is about to assume a long-term bearish trajectory, a sign which might precede major price corrections. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $107,400, showing a 7-day loss of more than 5% of its value.