Bitcoin ‘Monte Carlo’ model forecasts $713K peak in 6 months

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a daily and weekly close at $80,688 on March 9, the lowest close since Nov. 11, 2024.

Bitcoin also dropped below its key 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks, indicating further high time frame (HTF) weakness in the charts.

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to show “extreme fear” on March 10, one BTC market simulation still highlights bullish projections for the latter half of 2025.

Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, performed a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin's price, providing a six-month forecast for the crypto asset.

The Monte Carlo model is a computational method using random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risk. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends.

Bitcoin Monte Carlo projections by Mark Quant. Source: X.com

Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimated a mean final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, on a broader scale, the price was expected to fluctuate between $51,430, i.e., a 5th percentile return and $713,000 at the 95th percentile.

Related: Bitcoin slides another 3% — Is BTC price headed for $69K next?

However, it is important to note that a Monte Carlo model relies strongly on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that the asset value follows a random path with a constant parameter drift.

In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is built into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future shifts. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis remains as fitting as “rolling the dice."

Last week, Quant also highlighted a correlation between the total crypto market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating that the TOTAL market cap value may reach new highs above $4 trillion in Q2 2025.

Bitcoin price dropped 6.38% over the weekend, creating a fresh CME futures gap in the charts. The CME Bitcoin futures gap describes the price difference between the closing of CME Bitcoin futures trading on Friday and its reopening on Sunday evening.

Bitcoin CME gap. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, the CME gap currently lies between $83,000 and $86,000, a fairly large gap of $3,000. Based on past behavior, Bitcoin tends to “fill” or return into these gaps on the higher time frame charts, with the previous seven gaps filled out in the past four months.

Mark Cullen, a technical analyst, also highlighted the CME gap, which took form over the weekend, and speculated the possibility of a short squeeze before the US markets open on March 10. However, the trader added,

Related: US dollar plunge powers Bitcoin bull case, but other metrics concern: Analyst

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.