Bitcoin Must Fall 90% For Years To Pressure Strategy’s Debt, CEO Says

Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide. 

Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday.

Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset. 

The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session.

For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call.

Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually. 

However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply.

Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it. 

He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets. 

Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets.

On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm. 

According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity. 

Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash. 

If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings.

However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com