Bitcoin needs weekly close above $81K to avoid downside ahead of FOMC

Bitcoin needs to close above the key $81,000 weekly level to avoid more downside volatility ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will offer investors more cues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 am UTC, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin price continues to risk significant downside volatility due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty around global trade tariffs,  according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Closing the week above $81,000 will be key to avoid more Bitcoin downside, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range, holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure.”

The analyst’s comments come days ahead of the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19. Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

The outcome of the meeting may significantly impact Bitcoin investor sentiment, said Lee, adding:

“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.”

“Even a dovish surprise, like a rate cut, might not be the immediate boost some are hoping for, as investors are still weighing macro uncertainties,” added the analyst.

Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

Bitcoin close above $85,000 may reignite investor optimism for more upside: analyst

Other analysts are seeing a silver lining in Bitcoin’s stagnant price action.

A weekly close above $85,000 may inspire more investor confidence and lead to the next breakout, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset tokenization platform.

The market analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the $80,000 support and the $85,000–$90,000 resistance, with a break above the latter potentially sparking a strong upward movement.”

While Bitcoin’s short-term momentum may be limited by the upcoming economic releases, the regulatory developments around Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may gradually bring more market optimism and mass adoption, added the analyst.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Trump’s Bitcoin reserve came one step closer to fruition on March 14, after US Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill that seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.

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