Bitcoin Not Out Of Danger Yet, NVT Golden Cross Warns

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross still has a high value, a sign that may be bearish for BTC.

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the recent trend in the NVT Golden Cross for BTC and its implications for the price.

The NVT ratio is an indicator that tells us about how the Bitcoin market cap compares against its transaction volume. The metric is generally used to judge whether the asset’s price is fair or not right now.

When the indicator’s value is high, it suggests the network’s value (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the volume). Such a trend implies that the asset may be overpriced currently.

On the other hand, the low metric means the cryptocurrency’s price may be undervalued due to a rebound as the market cap is low compared to the volume.

In the context of the current topic, the NVT ratio itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a modified form called the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend (the 10-day moving average) with the long-term trend (30-day MA) of the NVT ratio to identify tops and bottoms.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the past couple of years:

In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two relevant zones for the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. It would appear that when this metric is above 2.2, a top can be probable for the cryptocurrency as its price is overvalued in this zone. Similarly, the NVT Golden Cross being under -1.6 can lead to a bottom formation for the asset.

The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has ventured into the red territory for the last couple of months. Each time it has seen a decline out of the zone, it has followed up with another rise into the zone. As such, it hasn’t been able to visit the bullish region yet.

At present, the metric has just made another exit out of the top zone, but its value is still quite near it. Thus, while a top may not be especially probable now, a lasting uptrend is also unlikely to happen.

It’s possible that Bitcoin won’t be completely out of danger of observing more price drawdowns until the NVT Golden Cross can see a decrease in the green zone.

It now remains to be seen how the indicator develops in the near future and whether its changes will affect the BTC price.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around the $64,900 mark, up more than 4% over the past week.