Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has plunged recently. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency.

In a new post on X, o-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, which is an indicator that compares the amount of unrealized profit and loss held by investors on the BTC blockchain.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token on the network to find the price at which they were last involved in a transfer. If this previous selling price is greater than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is assumed to be carrying some net unrealized profit. Similarly, the cost basis being lower implies the token is underwater.

The exact amount of profit/loss held by a coin is equal to the difference between the two prices. The NUPL sums up this value for each category and then subtracts it to determine the net situation for the network. Additionally, it also divides the result by the market cap to showcase how the net profit/loss among investors looks relative to the asset’s total valuation.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up above the 0.5 level during the rallies in 2024 and 2025. This suggests that investors were carrying net profits more than half as much as the cryptocurrency’s market cap.

These phases of euphoria were followed by price declines that took the metric into the zone between 0.25 and 0.5. BTC managed to recover from the first two of these drops, but the latest one has been followed by an extended phase of downtrend.

From the chart, it’s visible that this bearish action has taken the cryptocurrency to a value of 0.18. This level indicates that profits are still dominant on the network, but they are much thinner than before.

The level lies inside a region that the analytics firm defines as pertaining to “hope/fear” among the investors. “This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades,” explained the analytics firm.

The last time that the Bitcoin NUPL saw a substantial drawdown into the region was during the 2022 bear market. Back then, the cryptocurrency ended up traveling right through the zone and into the extreme fear area below the zero level, corresponding to net losses being held by the majority of investors.

It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will stay in the region for this time around and which one will follow next.

Bitcoin dropped toward $65,000 on Thursday, but the asset has kicked back up to $69,000 on Friday.