Bitcoin On-Chain Data Hints At Macro Bottom Near $47,960 – Details

The Bitcoin bear market is now six months in and showing no signs of letting up. During this time, a cycle low of $60,000 was established, preceding the present consolidation action being seen. However, bearish sentiments remain at heightened levels, especially considering the disturbed geopolitical landscape of the past month. While there have been encouraging signs of ongoing institutional accumulation, there are still expectations of a market bottom, which would confirm a bullish trend reversal.

In an X post on April 4, renowned analyst Ali Martinez shares a critical insight on the Bitcoin market structure, predicting the macro bottom amid an enduring corrective phase. This analysis is based on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), an on-chain metric used to estimate Bitcoin’s long-term price floor by measuring the cumulative value of “Coin Days Destroyed” over time.

For context, Coin Days Destroyed measures how long coins were held before being spent, with older coins having more coin days destroyed upon any on-chain movement. The cumulative value of the CDD, when adjusted, creates the CVDD that tracks the price level at which long-term holders are likely to distribute their coins, thus forming a macro market bottom.

The importance of token distribution by long-term holders comes from the ownership change with new participants, injecting fresh capital. A macro bottom is presumed to be formed at this level because it represents a new cost basis, which the new holders are likely to defend, transforming it into a key support level.  

According to Martinez, the present CVDD price floor is at $47,960, which the analyst recognizes as the ultimate support zone. Notably. Bitcoin trades at $66,683, indicating there is still significant room for a downside despite the price dip since the bear market commenced in October 2025. If Bitcoin dips to the CVDD floor, historical data shows consistent proof of a major rebound. Considering this pattern, Martinez refers to this price level ($47,960) as the structural foundation of the Bitcoin market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $67,279 after a slight increase of 0.69% in the past day and 0.72% in the past week. The maiden cryptocurrency has experienced a cumulative devaluation of 46.7% in this bear market, bringing its total cap to around $1.34 trillion. However, Bitcoin’s influence in the crypto ecosystem remains strong with a market dominance of 58.1%.