Bitcoin On-Chain Data Indicates High Volatility Ahead Following Post-CPI Reaction

Bitcoin has experienced another turbulent week marked by sustained downward pressure, reinforcing the broader bearish sentiment that has dominated the market in recent months. Despite late market relief on Friday, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim key resistance levels and presently hovers around the $69,000 price region. Meanwhile, analysts continue to rely on on-chain data to evaluate investor behavior and forecast Bitcoin’s possible trajectory in the coming weeks.

In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, seasoned analyst Amir Taha draws attention to the Bitcoin market’s reaction to the latest release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expert notes that inflation reading came in at 2.4%, surpassing market expectations and driving renewed optimism across risk assets, e.g., Bitcoin.

Following the CPI announcement, derivatives data from Binance shows a sharp increase in Bitcoin market activity. Firstly, there was a notable spike in Net Taker Volume, where a single hourly reading recorded over $265 million. The Net Taker Volume measures aggressive trading behavior in futures markets, and such a high positive value indicates buyers rushed to open long positions, likely in anticipation of a price rebound.

Additionally, the rise in Open Interest (OI) percent change suggests that traders are committing new capital into leveraged positions rather than simply closing existing trades. This surge in leveraged exposure highlights renewed speculative appetite but simultaneously introduces heightened liquidation risk if price momentum reverses.

While the derivatives markets reflect growing bullish positioning, on-chain metrics suggest underlying fragility among short-term participants. The Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder (STH-LTH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator recently declined to 0.72, falling below previous local bottoms recorded in August 2024 and April 2025.

Notably, this level indicates that STH is currently holding average unrealized losses of approximately 44%. Historically, similar declines have coincided with capitulation phases, during which weaker market participants close positions due to emotional or financial pressure.

Taha shares a further confirmation of this divergence using the STH-LTH Net Position Realized Cap data. Short-term holders have recorded a steep decline, with realized cap value dropping to approximately -$57 billion, indicating substantial realized losses. Conversely, long-term holders maintain a positive realized cap near $35 billion, demonstrating continued resilience and accumulation tendencies despite a major market panic among distressed short-term traders.

Taken together, the post-CPI surge in leveraged long positions alongside mounting losses among short-term holders points toward elevated market instability. As a result, Bitcoin investors should anticipate significant volatility in the near term, as the market continues to await a decisive shift in macroeconomic or on-chain momentum to establish a clear trajectory.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $68,929, reflecting a 5.06% increase in the past day.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView