Bitcoin OTC Balance Records Rapid Outflows — What’s Next For Price?

Over the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market saw an overwhelming sellers’ dominance, with no significant input from the bulls influencing the price. As the flagship cryptocurrency slipped into a downturn, investors increasingly fled the market out of fear, further pushing prices downwards. However, as the Bitcoin price seems to have found stability, an interesting on-chain revelation has also surfaced. If this change proves sustainable, it could mean something positive for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

In their latest post on the CryptoQuant platform, CoinNiel shares an exciting hypothesis for the Bitcoin price, based on data from the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance. The analyst points out that the Bitcoin price might be at a point where a reversal is imminent. For context, the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance metric measures the total amount of Bitcoin currently being held in wallets associated with over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. When the balance is rising, it often implies that more BTC is being moved to these OTC desks. This is also a telltale sign of increasing sell appetite among Bitcoin’s large holders.

On the contrary, falling values on this metric typically indicate that Bitcoin is being withdrawn from OTC desks. By extension, it could imply that institutional demand is growing, or that large holders are no longer positioning for sales.  According to the chart shared below, the Total OTC Desk Balance has taken on a sharp downtrend, meaning that there has been a significant amount of BTC sent out of the OTC market. Notably, this switch in investor behavior is happening around the same time as when Bitcoin regained its $68,000 footing.

As a result, the BTC market sentiment appears to be shifting from pessimistic to slightly optimistic: instead of accumulating BTC for sale, OTC balances are instead contracting. This could be caused by increased buying from large holders or due to reduced selling appetite among Bitcoin’s market participants. 

In the scenario where there is increased institutional accumulation of Bitcoin, it could be a sign that the Bitcoin price would soon make a big upside move. On the other hand, reduced selling activity is also good for the Bitcoin price, as it translates as reduced selling pressure, allowing for the short-term recovery of the flagship cryptocurrency’s price. CoinNiel, therefore, states as a caveat that the true drivers behind this dynamic remain to be confirmed. As a result, investors and other market participants should be alert when engaging with the Bitcoin market.

At press time, Bitcoin holds a value of $67,953, reflecting a 24-hour devaluation of 0.17% per CoinMarketCap data. Since the past seven days, the flagship cryptocurrency has so far lost about 2.81% of its value.