Bitcoin Plunges Below $100K Despite Positive Coinbase Premium Signal – What’s Next?

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen bullish but unsteady price action in early 2025, with recent data highlighting shifting sentiment among US investors. After briefly crossing the $102,000 mark yesterday, the asset has struggled to maintain upward momentum, shedding most of its recent gains as it stands at just below $100,000.

These developments coincide with critical insights from key on-chain metrics that offer a clearer view of Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

A CryptoQuant analyst known as Burak Kesmeci recently shared insights on the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which turned positive for the first time in 2025. The CPI measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, serving as a crucial indicator of US investor sentiment.

3 days ago, Coinbase Premium Index crossed SMA14 for the 1st time in 26 days—Bitcoin is now up 4% to $102K.

In Nov 2024, a similar move saw Bitcoin rally from $69K to $108K.

U.S. buyers could be back in action. pic.twitter.com/XtAlHUzzvv

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 6, 2025

Alongside this positive shift, a notable 4,012 BTC outflow from Coinbase was recorded, signaling renewed buying interest among US-based investors. Historically, such patterns have been associated with a rise in buying pressure, often laying the groundwork for potential price surges.

Despite these positive signals, Bitcoin’s price performance remains restrained. After briefly surpassing $102,000 on December 6, Bitcoin retreated and now trades below $100,000, reflecting a modest 3.3% decrease over the past 24 hours.

This price mark from the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization puts it at approximately 8.9% below its all-time high of $108,135, achieved in December 2024.

Notably, the current price action from BTC suggests that while buying pressure exists, it may not yet be sufficient to trigger another strong rally.

According to cryptocurrency analyst Ali, Bitcoin maintains a critical support zone between $95,400 and $98,400, where over 1.77 million addresses collectively hold 1.53 million BTC.

This support zone remains essential for stabilizing Bitcoin’s price amid market uncertainty. Conversely, resistance appears limited, with only 107,000 BTC supply positioned between $104,700 and $105,770. This relatively thin resistance could pave the way for upward movement if buying pressure intensifies.

#Bitcoin sits well above an important support zone between $95,400 and $98,400, where 1.77 million addresses bought over 1.53 million $BTC. However, there isn’t significant resistance ahead, only a minimal supply wall of 107,000 #BTC between $104,700 and $105,770. pic.twitter.com/MEATFegTV2

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 7, 2025

Meanwhile, zooming out, analysts remain bullish overall on Bitcoin. Captain Faibik for instance has recently shared his outlook on BTC suggesting that the asset is still poised for a rally to $112,000.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView