Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 50% Correction As BTC’s 2022 Bearish Playbook Repeats

As the crypto market recovers from the latest pullback, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to bounce from its one-month low. Some analysts have warned that the correction has left the cryptocurrency in a “fragile position” that resembles the start of the previous bear market.

On Sunday, Bitcoin saw a 3.6% intraday decline, closing the day below its yearly opening for the first time. Since November, the flagship crypto has been hovering between $86,000-$93,500 in the weekly timeframe, failing to turn the range’s resistance into support despite multiple attempts.

During the early January breakout, BTC climbed 11.5% from its $87,600 2026 opening price, reaching a two-month high of $97,924 nearly two weeks ago. Since then, the cryptocurrency has erased all its recent gains, diving below this key area and closing the week at the base of its range.

Amid this performance, Market observer Philarekt affirmed that Bitcoin is repeating its 2022 playbook, highlighting the similarities between the leading crypto’s performance at the start of the last bear market and its current price action.

As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency formed a bear flag pattern after the initial drop from its cycle top of $69,000.  At the time, the cryptocurrency tested and rejected the 100-day Moving Average (MA), leading to a pullback towards the pattern’s lower boundary.

This was followed by a rebound towards the formation’s upper boundary, where the 200-day MA was located, and a rejection from this area, which led to a breakdown from the pattern and 55% correction.

This time, Bitcoin has rejected from the 100-day MA and is currently retesting the pattern’s support line. Based on this, he suggested that the flagship crypto could see one more leg up toward the 200-day MA, located around the $100,000 barrier, before “the real show” begins.

Meanwhile, Rekt Capital explained that Bitcoin was in a “particularly fragile position,” as it needed to hold the previous week’s marginal close above the range high. “When Weekly Closes occur marginally beyond a key level, the subsequent retest becomes structurally precarious,” he detailed.

In his analysis, the market watcher noted that Bitcoin saw a sharp rejection from the $98,000 region, where the 21-week and 50-week Bull Market Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are located.

This coincided with the loss of a higher low structure that had been building similarly to 2021. “Losing that Higher Low is significant, as it removes a key structural buffer that could have supported continued consolidation within the Weekly Range,” he asserted.

The rejection has shifted focus to the strength of the $86,000 support and the character of the upcoming rebounds from this area. He warned that shallower bounces from the range lows would suggest weakening demand, increasing the chances of a breakdown below this support.

Strong rejections that lead to downside continuation historically tend to occur later in the cycle toward the end of Q1 or the start of Q2, Rekt Capital pointed out, but Bitcoin is already testing the lower boundary of its weekly range.

This adds “importance to the integrity of this support, as any early breakdown would represent a shift relative to that typical timing.” At the moment, the weekly range remains pivotal, “acting as the key decision point between a prolonged relief structure and the risk of deeper downside,” the analyst concluded.