Bitcoin Price Eyes Bullish Breakout as Fed Holds Rates Steady, Says CryptoQuant

Bitcoin could be preparing for a bullish breakout following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, according to a new report from onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin is showing bullish signs as the Fed holds interest rates steady, historically a positive macro signal.
• CryptoQuant highlights a divergence between stable BTC price and falling open interest, suggesting a healthy market reset.
• Growing ask liquidity near $106K raises the potential for a short squeeze if momentum builds.

In a June 19 post, CryptoQuant pointed to emerging tailwinds for BTC after the Fed’s June 18 policy meeting, where officials unanimously voted to pause further hikes.

Historically, such pauses have benefited Bitcoin, and analysts believe 2025 may offer favorable conditions for risk assets.

CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha highlighted trading data from Binance showing diverging trends between BTC price and open interest (OI).

“BTC has formed consistent equal lows slightly above $104,000. This level has acted as a strong demand zone, repeatedly absorbing sell pressure,” Taha wrote.

At the same time, open interest on Binance has been making lower lows, suggesting a steady round of deleveraging in the derivatives market.

This type of shakeout, price holding while OI declines, is often seen as a signal that weaker positions are being cleared, potentially paving the way for more stable upward movement.

“The timing of this cleanup coincides with the Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes — a macroeconomic signal that often acts as a tailwind for risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” the firm noted.

Speaking after the Fed kept interest rate unchanged, Powell kept it cool and cautious: no hawkish or dovish tilt. Just a “wait and see” vibe amid rising uncertainty. Markets took it calmly.

But as open interest is dropping while $BTC holds above demand, bears might be running… pic.twitter.com/5gsK5QTwPY

In past cycles, Bitcoin has shown bullish behavior following rate stabilization, especially when open interest fades and liquidation activity slows. That backdrop, paired with strong price support, gives analysts reason to watch closely for upside movement.

Data from CoinGlass adds to the bullish narrative. The platform reports growing ask liquidity near the $106,000 level, which could trigger a short squeeze if buying accelerates.

While BTC continues to trade in a narrow range, the combination of macro stability and onchain cleanup suggests a potential shift in momentum may be approaching.

Bitcoin is consolidating just below the $105,000 mark, trading around $104,900 at the time of writing. The price action suggests a neutral-to-slightly bullish setup, supported by tight Bollinger Bands and steady RSI values.

On the 2-hour chart, BTC has maintained higher lows near $104,000, forming a consistent demand zone.

RSI is hovering near 48, indicating balanced momentum with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. MACD, while still negative, shows signs of flattening, hinting at a possible shift in short-term trend.

The 30-minute chart reinforces this view, with RSI near 51 and MACD showing a modest positive crossover. Bollinger Bands remain relatively tight, suggesting price is coiling ahead of a potential move.

In the 1-minute chart, short-term momentum remains weak. RSI at 38.26 and a flat MACD reflect lackluster intraday interest. Price is compressing between $104,864 and $104,999, with minimal volatility during the observed period.

Overall, BTC appears to be in a consolidation phase with a bullish bias.

A decisive break above $105,500 could signal momentum toward $107K, while holding $104K remains key for bullish continuation. Short squeeze potential may increase if spot volume rises near resistance levels.

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