Bitcoin Price Forecast: Expert Predicts 70% Chance Of New Highs Within Two Weeks

Following the recent decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates, the Bitcoin price has resumed its upward trajectory after a brief period of consolidation below $115,000. 

This shift aligns with forecasts from leading analysts, who suggest that the market’s top cryptocurrency may reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming months. Some experts even believe that this milestone could be achieved as soon as two weeks from now.

Market expert Axel Adler has highlighted key indicators supporting this outlook. He noted on social media platform X that BTC futures are trading at a premium compared to spot prices, with a consistently positive basis. Additionally, the seven-day basis is above the thirty-day average, suggesting a bullish market regime. 

Adler’s analysis suggests a base case probability of around 70% for a continued stepwise uptrend or sideways movement over the next two weeks for the Bitcoin price. 

He emphasized that if a cluster of bullish signals emerges—such as rising prices, an increasing basis, and growing open interest—this would likely attract fresh long positions and enhance the likelihood of the Bitcoin price achieving a new ATH.

Importantly, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-scores for both the 155-day and 365-day periods are hovering near zero, indicating that the market is balanced and not in an overheated or oversold state. 

With the Bitcoin price positioned just above its Short-Term Realized Price, Adler stresses that the stage is set for potential consolidation over the next week or two, followed by a possible surge toward new highs. Adler referred to this anticipated movement as a new “uptober” for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.

Adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding the Bitcoin price is the recent performance of US stocks, which have been on a significant uptrend for the past two weeks. 

Analysts at The Bull Theory have noted a correlation between stock market rallies and the Bitcoin price action, with the analysts suggesting that Bitcoin tends to rise when US equities hit new highs. 

Historical data supports this notion: as seen in the chart below, after an all-time high in the S&P 500, the Bitcoin price has averaged an increase of 12% over 30 days and an impressive 36% over 90 days. If this were to occur again, the Bitcoin price would reach $131,000 and even $178,000 respectively. 

Similarly, following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin’s average gains are 16% in 30 days and 46% in 90 days. This scenario would position the market’s leading cryptocurrency at $136,000 and $199,000 if similar price action unfolds from current trading levels of $117,770. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com