Bitcoin Price Is Heading for Another Red October, but Galaxy Says the Worst Is Over

Bitcoin price is heading toward a second consecutive losing October, but Galaxy Research believes the market may have already turned a corner. BTC is trading just a nod above $80,000, down by more than 4% month-to-date, as investors weigh persistent selling pressure against improving long-term signals.

The bullish case gained fresh support from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26. This return to positive flows ended a two-day outflow streak, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for nearly all the gains.

However, the recovery remains fragile. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded $88 million to $90 million in outflows over the same session, showing that institutional demand remains far from universally bullish.

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Galaxy Research declared the Bitcoin bear market over in an October 26 assessment, arguing that BTC has entered an accumulation phase following a potential bottom near $76,500 on June 30.

The firm points to Bitcoin’s recovery above key long-term moving averages, including the 50-week moving average. BTC has recorded multiple weekly closes above that level, which Galaxy views as evidence that the market’s underlying structure has improved.

Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 when the assessment emerged, leaving it 5% above the 50-week moving average near $76,000.

Galaxy also argues that several sources of selling pressure have eased. Long-term holders have reduced their distribution, while macro traders and basis-focused funds have cut their exposure. Asset managers’ net-long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have also declined substantially from previous highs.

That matters because a market can stabilize when leveraged or speculative sellers exit, even before a powerful new wave of buyers appears.

Galaxy’s bullish thesis is not unconditional. A sustained weekly close below the 50-week moving average, without a quick recovery, would undermine its assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower.

Bitcoin’s immediate test is the $75,800–$76,500 region around its 50-week moving average while attracting sustained spot demand.

If the ETF recovery continues and selling pressure remains subdued, BTC could build a stronger base for another advance. Galaxy’s analysis suggests the market may be accumulating rather than entering a fresh bearish phase.

But if ETF inflows fade and Bitcoin loses its long-term moving-average support, the bullish price thesis will face a serious challenge.

For now, Bitcoin presents a market caught between two competing signals: a second consecutive red October and a growing argument that the worst of the bear market may already be behind it.

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