Bitcoin price levels to watch as Fed rate cut hopes fade

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price failed another attempt at breaking above resistance at $86,000 on April 16 as  Fed Chair Jerome Powell dashed hopes of early rate cuts, citing the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Since April 9, BTC price has formed daily candle highs between $75,000 and $86,400, but has been unable to produce a close above $86,000.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Many analysts and traders ask, “Where is Bitcoin price headed next?” as the asset remains stuck in a tight range on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 4-hour chart.

88% chance interest rates unchanged

Polymarket bettors say there is an 88% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, leaving just a 10% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.

Interest rate expectations. Source: Polymarket

However, a common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.

On April 16, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is not rushing to cut interest rates. Speaking in Chicago, he emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, needing more economic data before adjusting policy. 

Powell highlighted risks from President Trump’s tariffs, which could drive inflation and slow growth, potentially creating a "challenging scenario" for the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. 

"The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated," said Powell in a speech, adding: 

"The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."

He stressed maintaining a restrictive policy to ensure inflation doesn’t persist, suggesting any immediate rate cuts despite market volatility and tariff uncertainties.

Related: Bitcoin gold copycat move may top $150K as BTC stays 'impressive'

As a result, President Trump has threatened Powell with termination, arguing that he is “always too late and wrong” and that his April 16 report was a typical and complete “mess.”

“Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

Meanwhile, Polymarket now says there’s a 46% chance that Bitcoin’s price will hit $90,000 on April 30, with less than 5% possibility of hitting new all-time highs above $110,000.

Key Bitcoin price levels to watch

Bitcoin must flip the $86,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs at $90,000.

For this to happen, BTC/USD must first regain its position above the 200-day exponential moving average (purple line) at $87,740. This trendline was lost on March 9 for the first time since August 2024.

Above that, there is a major supply zone stretching all the way to $91.240, where the 100-day SMA sits. Bulls will also have to overcome this barrier in order to increase the chances of BTC’s run to $100,000.

Bitcoin daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Conversely, the bears will attempt to keep the $86,000 resistance in place, increasing the likelihood of new lows under $80,000. A key area of interest lies between $76,000 and the previous range lows at $74,000, i.e., the previous all-time high from March 2024.

Below that, the next move would be a retest of the US election day price of $67,817, erasing all the gains made from the so-called Trump pump.

Onchain analyst James Check points out that Bitcoin’s true bottom lies at its "true market mean" — the average cost basis for active investors — around the $65,000 area. 

“The $75,000 zone is an area where you want the bulls to mount a defense,” check said in an interview on the TFTC podcast, adding:

“If they don’t, the next step is we go back to the chop consolidation range, we find out how deep into that we go, and the flag in the sea of sand is $65,000.”

Interestingly, this price level aligns closely with Michael Saylor’s Strategy cost basis, which sits around $67,500. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.