Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Falls Below $64K as Fed Rate-Hike Fears Intensify

According to Brave New Coin data, Bitcoin Price dropped as much as 2.3% to around $63,368 during early Asian trading, its lowest level in 11 days, before recovering modestly. Ether and other major cryptocurrencies also declined as the broader market moved into risk-off mode.

The latest weakness leaves Bitcoin back in the lower half of its recent $60,000-$66,000 range, with traders now focused on whether the cryptocurrency can defend the lower boundary or reclaim the $65,000-$66,000 resistance zone.

The Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting has become the dominant macro catalyst for Bitcoin this week. Markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase, raising concerns that higher borrowing costs could pressure risk-sensitive assets.

StockMKTNewz reported Citadel Securities’ contrarian forecast that the Fed could deliver a surprise 25-basis-point rate hike to reinforce its anti-inflation stance and reduce reliance on forward guidance. Source: @StockMKTNewz via X

Citadel Securities expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points, arguing that such a move could strengthen Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility in addressing persistent inflation.

Higher interest rates generally create a more challenging environment for assets such as Bitcoin because they can increase the relative appeal of traditional yield-bearing investments while tightening financial conditions.

“Bitcoin is mainly getting hit by the rising probability of a Fed hike, as well as macro concerns about AI-related credit risks,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets.

Mauron identified $62,000 as the next downside level to watch, with stronger support expected around $60,000.

The rate outlook is also overshadowing progress surrounding the CLARITY Act, the long-awaited U.S. cryptocurrency market-structure legislation. While regulatory developments have recently provided a more constructive backdrop for digital assets, near-term macroeconomic concerns are currently dominating sentiment.

Bitcoin’s decline accelerated alongside a steep selloff in Asian equities. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged more than 8% during Tuesday’s session, triggering a marketwide circuit breaker, while losses later approached 10%.

The Nikkei suffered a major sell-off on July 28, 2026, falling more than 4% intraday as roughly $300 billion in market value was erased, with technology and semiconductor stocks among the hardest hit. Source: @cryptorover via X

Technology stocks were particularly weak, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both falling more than 12%. Investors were concerned about heavy artificial intelligence spending, financing risks and intensifying competition from Chinese semiconductor manufacturers.

Japan’s Nikkei also declined about 4%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had already fallen 2.2% during Monday’s U.S. session. Nvidia’s 5% decline added to the pressure on technology-linked risk assets.

Bitcoin frequently trades in tandem with equities when movements are driven by liquidity, interest rates and broad macroeconomic conditions. However, the relationship is not absolute, meaning the Asian equity selloff alone cannot be considered the sole cause of BTC’s decline.

Instead, several factors—including Fed expectations, ETF flows, and broader risk sentiment—appear to have converged.

Bitcoin’s technical structure has weakened after the cryptocurrency failed to establish a sustained foothold above $65,000-$66,000.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46.77, below its moving average near 53.49. While the indicator remains comfortably above oversold territory, its position below 50 suggests that short-term momentum has shifted somewhat toward sellers.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also points to fading momentum. The histogram has moved negative, while the MACD line remains below its signal line, indicating that the recovery seen earlier in July has lost strength.

Bitcoin’s 3-day Bollinger Bands are tightening, signaling compressed volatility that could precede a significant price move. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted a squeeze in Bitcoin’s three-day Bollinger Bands. Such compression typically signals declining volatility and can precede a larger price move, although it does not determine whether the eventual breakout will be bullish or bearish.

The immediate technical picture therefore remains range-bound but mildly bearish.

Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above $65,000-$66,000 to improve its short-term structure. A successful breakout could bring $67,181 into focus, followed by the broader $68,000 resistance area.

On the downside, $61,000 represents an important intermediate level, while $60,000 remains the key floor of the current consolidation. A decisive daily close below $60,000 could expose the late-June low near $58,000.

Bitcoin’s institutional demand has also presented mixed signals.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net outflows of approximately $11.64 million on July 27, according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust posted the largest individual outflow at around $8.82 million.

Although Monday’s outflow was relatively modest compared with the $240.08 million withdrawn on July 24, it marked another negative session after a period of stronger ETF demand.

Mid-tier Bitcoin wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC accumulated 19,696 BTC over eight days, indicating stronger holders are absorbing market supply. Source: @SantimentData via X

The weakness in ETF flows contrasts with recent on-chain accumulation among larger Bitcoin holders.

Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 19,696 BTC over an eight-day period. Smaller wallets, however, showed less aggressive buying during the decline.

The divergence suggests that larger holders have been more willing to accumulate during weakness, although wallet data cannot always be directly equated with individual investors because large addresses may belong to exchanges, custodians or funds.

For Bitcoin bulls, continued accumulation could provide an underlying source of support. Conversely, transfers from large wallets toward exchanges during rallies could signal increased selling pressure.

The Federal Reserve decision is only the first major catalyst facing Bitcoin this week.

U.S. second-quarter GDP data and the June Personal Income and Outlays report are due Thursday, with the latter containing the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures inflation readings.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

A rate hike or more hawkish-than-expected guidance could push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, potentially placing additional pressure on Bitcoin. Under that scenario, $61,000 and $60,000 would become increasingly important.

Conversely, a rate hold accompanied by softer guidance could allow BTC to retest $65,000-$66,000. Cooler inflation data could reinforce that move, while stronger-than-expected inflation could revive concerns about prolonged restrictive monetary policy.

The combination of compressed volatility and several major macroeconomic catalysts increases the likelihood of a sharper Bitcoin move once the market establishes a clear direction.

Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains neutral to mildly bearish while BTC trades below the $65,000-$66,000 resistance zone.

A sustained daily close above $66,000 would strengthen the bullish case and could put $67,181 and $68,000 back on the radar. Stronger spot volume and renewed ETF inflows would provide additional confirmation.

On the other hand, a decisive break below $60,000 would weaken the current range structure and potentially expose the late-June low around $58,000.

For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between these major boundaries. The Bollinger Band squeeze suggests volatility could expand, while the Fed decision, GDP figures, and core PCE inflation data provide several potential catalysts for the next major move.

Until BTC decisively breaks either side of the $60,000-$66,000 range, the broader market structure remains one of consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.