Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can Treasury Inflows Drive BTC Toward $125K?

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $110,855 on Thursday, holding a market cap above $2.2 trillion. The move comes as the U.S. dollar softened following weaker-than-expected jobs data. According to the Labor Department, job openings in July fell to 7.18 million, well below forecasts of 7.38 million, pointing to a cooling labor market.

The U.S. dollar extended losses on Wednesday against major currencies, including the yen, Swiss franc, and euro, after economic data showed weakening labor demand, strengthening market hopes for an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut. https://t.co/PLUnw9RObk

The dollar dropped against the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc. Sterling advanced 0.38% to $1.3442, while the euro gained 0.34% to $1.1672. Treasury yields slipped as well, with the U.S. 10-year falling to 4.22%. Analysts said this combination reinforces expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

Dollar hits lowest since end-July ahead of US jobs data https://t.co/a1nxZKPkJv https://t.co/a1nxZKPkJv

Lower yields tend to favor Bitcoin, which benefits from a weaker dollar environment as investors hedge against currency depreciation.

Institutional adoption is building the long term case for Bitcoin. Treasury, a new Euro denominated Bitcoin company, raised €126 million ($147 million) in a private deal led by Winklevoss Capital and Nakamoto Holdings. They launched with 1,000 BTC in reserves and will list on Euronext Amsterdam via a reverse merger.

JUST IN: Winklevoss brothers backed the new #Bitcoin treasury company Treasury B.V., which bought 1,000 BTC.

Nothing stops this train pic.twitter.com/7AVPsPIMuI

Founder Khing Oei said they will add to reserves through convertible debt and equity, making BTC a treasury grade asset in Europe. Treasury joins Sequans Communications in France and Germany’s Bitcoin Group, more companies are accumulating.

Meanwhile, U.S. Bancorp—the fifth-largest commercial bank in the U.S.—relaunched Bitcoin custody services for institutional investors after a regulatory reversal. President Stephen Philipson said the bank will expand its offerings as demand grows, potentially moving into payments, wealth management, and additional crypto services.

The move mirrors steps by Deutsche Bank and BNY Mellon, signaling that major finance is warming back up to Bitcoin.

On the charts, Bitcoin has broken out of the downward channel, reclaimed the 50-EMA at $110,263. RSI is above 50 and a bullish engulfing candle at late August lows is a sign of improving momentum.

If BTC maintains strength above $110,500, resistance levels at $113,576 and $116,000 come into play, with $118,600 marking the next target.

Traders are eyeing entries near $110,200–$110,500, with stops below $107,400 support. A successful push above the 200-EMA at $112,703 would validate the breakout, paving the way toward $125,000 in the coming weeks.

The overall structure is bullish. Price is respecting the rising channel and the 50-week SMA at $95,926 is a major support zone. The 200-week SMA at $42,869 is deeper structural support. RSI is at 62, not overheated.

If BTC clears $134,487, Fibonacci extensions point toward $171,055, $231,241, and potentially $290,000 in this cycle. On the downside, $104,379 remains key support, with $89,096 and $74,732 as long-term floors that must hold to preserve the bullish setup.

As long as Bitcoin holds above $95,000, analysts believe the trajectory toward six-figure milestones remains intact. With banks re-entering custody and European firms adding BTC to balance sheets, the long-term picture supports a renewed march toward record highs.

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