Bitcoin Price Prediction: Grayscale Believes The Bear Market is Over

Bitcoin price is trading around $64,500 to $66,000, little changed over the past 24 hours, and Grayscale just made a prediction that’s splitting the trading community. The firm’s head of research argued the bear market may already be behind us, but the condition attached to that view matters more than the headline.

Grayscale’s Zach Pandl outlined two competing frameworks for Bitcoin’s next move. The first is the traditional four-year halving cycle, which historically allows for deep corrections after cycle peaks. Under that model, Bitcoin could still revisit the $50,000 area before forming a lasting bottom.

INSIGHT: Grayscale's Head of Research Zach Pandl says Bitcoin's bottom may already be in if the Fed holds off on rate hikes.

He pushes back on the "four-year cycle" theory, which points to a lower bottom in September or October. pic.twitter.com/gJwaeOEmGH

However, Grayscale favors a different framework. It views the recent decline as a cyclical pullback within a longer-term uptrend. In that scenario, a durable floor has likely formed around $60,000 to $65,000. The key variable remains Federal Reserve policy, as a stable rate outlook supports the bullish case.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting institutional interest, reinforcing the constructive outlook. Still, whether that demand survives the next round of macroeconomic data remains the biggest question. For now, Bitcoin is holding within the $64,500 to $66,000 range while traders wait for the next catalyst.

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Bitcoin is trading around $64,500 to $66,000, pressing against resistance near $66,000. A confirmed daily close above that zone could open the path toward $68,500 to $70,000. If momentum strengthens, the $72,000 area becomes the next major hurdle. Meanwhile, support sits around $60,000 to $62,000, and bulls need to defend it.

The technical picture remains mixed but is slowly improving. Bitcoin continues consolidating beneath a descending trendline, while analysts are watching for a breakout above resistance. Grayscale adds a fundamental angle, noting recent buyers have largely returned to breakeven. That suggests the market has absorbed much of the recent selling pressure instead of delaying it.

The bull case calls for Bitcoin to break above $66,000 with strong volume. If that level flips into support, price could climb toward $68,500 to $70,000. Softer macroeconomic data would likely strengthen that move and improve market sentiment.

The base case is continued consolidation between $62,000 and $66,000 as traders wait for clearer Federal Reserve signals. ETF demand could keep providing gradual support. However, a decisive drop below $60,000 would revive the four-year cycle argument and put the $55,000 to $60,000 area back into focus. Historical volatility suggests that lengthy consolidation can still occur during established uptrends.

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Bitcoin consolidating near all-time-high territory is the kind of setup that makes large-cap BTC positions feel crowded, and the upside math at a multi-trillion-dollar market cap is structurally limited compared to earlier in the cycle. Traders looking for asymmetric exposure within the Bitcoin ecosystem are increasingly looking one layer down.

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