Bitcoin Price Prediction: Has the BTC Bear Market Ended After 45 Weeks?

Bitcoin is trading at $81,600, up by a huge 6% since the start of last week, and the number that matters for its price prediction just flipped bullish for the first time in nearly a year. After 45 straight weeks of failing to close above its 50-week moving average, BTC finally flipped it.

Bitcoin closed the last week above the 50-day MA for the first time since November 2025, following a 29% rebound over 35 days. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn called the close an “important confirmation” that the bear phase may have run its course. The weekly close is roughly 3% above the moving average, sitting at $78,800, and nearly 24% above the 200-week MA at $65,500.

This technical confirmation has historically lined up with prior cycle bottoms. Whether this one holds depends on what happens at the resistance shelf just overhead, a level Bitcoin has already tested and failed to clear once this week.

Bitcoin’s current $81,600 print sits comfortably above both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, a structural setup technicians typically flag as early-bull-market territory rather than dead-cat bounce. Our pivot data shows layered resistance at $82,900, then $83,430–$84,775, with a stretch target near $88,162 if momentum extends.

Support has clustered around $78,845 and $77,895, with a firmer floor near $76,000–$76,700 that’s already been tested once this month. A weekly close above $82,956 confirms the breakout and opens the path toward $88,000+, consistent with Elliott Wave counts circulating in recent technical analysis.

BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS

regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are “in”

bitcoin is up 29% in 35 days pic.twitter.com/HzKVUrxMVz

The most likely scenario for now is to see BTC grind between $78,800 and $83,000 while the market digests the moving-average flip. However, A weekly close back below the 50-day MA at $78,800 would invalidate the signal and drag price toward the $76,000 line in the sand. Traders watching this setup should track the weekly close, not intraday noise.

A 45-week-overdue moving average flip is exactly the kind of headline that gets long-term holders nodding along, but at an $81,000 handle, Bitcoin’s percentage upside from here is a different animal than it was at $16,000. Doubling from here means a $1.6 trillion market cap addition.

That math is why traders chasing asymmetric returns are increasingly looking one layer down, toward infrastructure being built directly on top of Bitcoin’s network.

Strong chart. Stronger Hyper. https://t.co/VNG0P4GuDo pic.twitter.com/qAXJFTVW2X

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with full SVM integration. Hyper is running smart contracts at speeds it claims outpace Solana itself, while settling back to Bitcoin’s base chain for security. The presale has raised $33 million at a current token price of just $0.0136865, with staking rewards offered at a high 30% APY.

Its Decentralized Canonical Bridge aims to solve BTC’s two biggest structural gaps: near-zero programmability and sluggish, expensive transaction throughput.

Research Bitcoin Hyper directly before deciding.

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