Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key US Inflation Data Just Dropped – Where is BTC Going Next?

Bitcoin is trading at $119,745, up 1.02% in the past 24 hours, as traders digest fresh U.S. inflation data. July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, matching expectations, while annual inflation held at 2.7%. Core CPI—excluding food and energy—climbed 0.3%, the largest monthly gain since January, pushing the year-on-year figure to 3.1% from June’s 2.9%.

Inflation is 50% above the Fed's target, and rising. Furthermore, core CPI has been above 3% since 2021, yet you are arguing for rate cuts? Are you mad? https://t.co/ry0Lk6bR92 pic.twitter.com/apxiyEdpHS

The report reinforces expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, following weak jobs data and downward revisions to prior nonfarm payrolls. The Fed’s benchmark rate remains at 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged for five straight meetings.

However, data quality concerns have emerged. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suspended CPI data collection in some cities due to budget constraints, increasing reliance on imputation for missing prices, now 35% of June’s data, up from 30% in May. President Trump’s removal of BLS chief Erika McEntarfer this month added political weight to the issue.

Bitcoin’s daily chart is showing price heading towards a significant resistance level between $117,335 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $123,250 (swing high).

A clear ascending trendline from July lows signals sustained higher lows, supported by the 50-day SMA at $114,396.

Key highlights:

• Breakout from a descending channel favors bullish continuation.
• Multiple upper-wick rejections near $120K point to strong seller presence.
• RSI at 61 shows room for upside without overbought conditions.
• MACD histogram has turned green with a pending bullish crossover.

Candlestick patterns over recent sessions show indecision, hinting at possible consolidation before a decisive move.

For traders, the technical structure offers two clear plays:

• Bullish Breakout: Daily close above $123,250 could open upside to $127,000 and $130,000. A stop-loss just below $117,350 helps limit risk.
• Bearish Reversal: Break below the ascending trendline could target $113,650 and $110,675.

For novice traders, the golden rule applies—wait for confirmation. Reacting to a breakout or breakdown, rather than guessing, avoids getting caught in sideways chop.

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