Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Rally to $123K or Drop to $112K?

Bitcoin is at $117,000, down less than 1% in the last 24 hours, with a market cap of $2.32 trillion and $73 billion in daily volume. Price is consolidating above $116,000, where support has held in recent days. The chart shows a narrowing wedge, often a precursor to big moves in either direction.

The 50-period SMA at $117,462 is the immediate cap on short-term rallies. Recent candles are showing indecision, with small-bodied candles indicating hesitation between buyers and sellers. The RSI at 51 has bounced from oversold levels, and the MACD is flattening after a bearish stretch, both suggesting a change in momentum.

Institutional adoption is growing. Dutch firm Amdax has launched AMBTS B.V., a Bitcoin treasury to list on Euronext Amsterdam, with plans to control 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, worth over $24 billion at today’s prices. This is another sign of European demand for BTC as a balance sheet asset, with at least 15 European companies already holding BTC.

JUST IN: Amdax plans to launch a #Bitcoin treasury company called AMBTS on the Dutch stock exchange.

Aims to own atleast 1% of bitcoin supply pic.twitter.com/b1DETGvp0a

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy added 155 BTC worth $18 million, bringing its total to 628,946 BTC valued at $74 billion. With unrealized gains of nearly $28 billion, Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, even with short-term volatility.

Michael Saylor signals Strategy will buy the Bitcoin dip

Saylor signaled an impending Bitcoin purchase by Strategy, as BTC's price hovers around the $117,000 level, down from the all-time high.

https://t.co/JuAnzlKNmr pic.twitter.com/EisnCsmok7

Key points to note:

• Institutions and businesses now control over 10% of Bitcoin’s supply.
• Strategy has doubled its BTC holdings since the 2024 US election.
• European companies are pushing Bitcoin into mainstream finance.

The broader crypto market is cautious ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders liquidating $567 million in positions this week. Funding rates are negative, indicating near term downside. Powell is expected to talk about inflation and the weakening labor market, but may not confirm a September rate cut.

CRYPTO DAYBOOK AMERICAS: There's a note of caution seeping into digital-asset markets ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech later this week. The CoinDesk 20 Index has dropped more than 4.5% in the past 24 hours.https://t.co/BgpXf98uuV

Technically, Bitcoin is at key levels. A break below $116,078 could see $114,650 and $112,680, while a break above $118,047 could see $120,374 and potentially $123,777. Traders are waiting for confirmation signals, such as engulfing candles or big volume spikes, to validate the next move.

Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term trend is still up. Institutional accumulation, growing adoption and a supply squeeze will set the stage for the next Bitcoin rally. If the momentum shifts, BTC could surge to $130,000 and beyond, entering the presales phase.

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