Bitcoin price still in bargain zone as US jobs report sparks rate cut hopes

Key Takeaways:

• Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin is undervalued and the firm holds an optimistic mid-term outlook.

• The JOLTS report shows a sharp drop in open US jobs, raising investors’ hope for Fed interest rate cuts.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s (BTC) mid-term outlook dropped to an “optimism” zone, as the investment firm noted that BTC is trending toward “undervaluation.”

As proof, the firm cited the “Bitcoin Yardstick” metric, which measures BTC’s market cap divided by its hashrate. A lower ratio suggests that Bitcoin is “cheaper” relative to the energy security of its network.

In Q1 2025, the metric stayed between -1 and 3 standard deviations, cooling from its Q4 2024 overheated levels. The number of days above 2-standard deviations dropped from 22 to 15, with none above 3, indicating that Bitcoin is less expensive compared to its network strength.

The investment firm mentioned that Bitcoin is in an “acceleration phase,” where rallies to new highs aren’t uncommon, though they caution a blow-off top could take place.

Illiquid supply rose from 61.50% to 63.49%, while liquid supply fell by 4%, indicating holders are increasingly committed to long-term positions. The Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio, currently 16% below its 2017 peak.

In line with this view, Cointelegraph reported that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF recorded a significant inflow of $970.9 million on April 28, 2025, marking its second-largest daily inflow since its January 2024 launch.

Since April 22, IBIT has amassed over $4.5 billion in net inflows, defying broader market trends where competitors like Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK’s ARKB faced outflows. With over $54 billion in assets under management, IBIT holds a 51% share of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market.

Related: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF buys $970M in BTC as inflows surge, boost market

The March 2025 US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report showed a plunge to 7.19 million from February’s 7.57 million, below the 7.48 million forecast. A lower-than-expected JOLTS number signals a cooling labor market, raising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which weakens the dollar and lifts risk assets like Bitcoin. 

Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure suggests economic strength, potentially delaying cuts and pressuring crypto prices. With federal layoffs at a 2020 peak, market expectations are leaning slightly dovish.

Economist and Bitcoin commentator Alex Kruger identified the JOLTS data as a short-term win for Bitcoin, as a “risk/gold hybrid” poised to gain from tariff de-escalation after Trump’s 90-day pause (ending July 8). 

In an X post, the analyst predicted that markets may focus on earnings guidance from firms like Caterpillar and tech stocks, while keeping an eye on next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet, where Powell might signal earlier rate cuts.

Kruger warned of a Q3 economic slowdown where the markets may be volatile, but he also said that Bitcoin’s unique risk-reward would outperform altcoins, which the analyst pointed out as overbought.

Related: Bitcoin 'hot supply' nears $40B as new investors flood in at $95K

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.