Bitcoin rally to $86K shows investor confidence, but it’s too early to confirm a trend reversal

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on its price action. After making a strong bounce from the local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and 9, analysts are beginning to question whether BTC could be gearing up for a reversal of the downward trend that’s persisted since the start of the year.BTC/USD 1-day, RSI 1-week. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

For some, like the veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but hopium. As he noted in his X post,

“Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of the BTC trend. Sorry.”

Others, however, see more reason for cautious optimism. Analyst Kevin Svenson highlighted a possible weekly RSI breakout, pointing out that “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators.” 

Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand—and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout. Furthermore, the bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal. 

Bitcoin demand — Are there early signs of recovery?

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand — measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.

However, the analysts caution against prematurely declaring a trend reversal. Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery only followed extended consolidation. 

This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and confirmation are still needed to confirm a shifting momentum.

Bitcoin: apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant

From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle. Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite.

Bitcoin trading volume. Source: CryptoQuant

Institutional investors confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the spot BTC ETFs have recorded continuous outflows totaling over $870 million, with the first modest inflow not occurring until April 15. Despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — indicating that some investor appetite for Bitcoin persists.

Related: Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase

Bitcoin supply — Will liquidity return?

On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This points to a continued lack of meaningful new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode notes, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”

Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges — often used to gauge available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018.

Yet, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts see reasons for cautious hope. Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.

“If the correlation remains, he wrote, then I assume that we'll see Bitcoin rally to an ATH in this quarter. This would also imply a rise in CNH/USD, a fall in Yields, a fall in Gold, a fall in DXY, and a rise in Altcoins.”Global M2 - 12-week lead. Source: Global Macro Investor

Even if bullish momentum and demand returns, Bitcoin will need to clear a critical resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500, as shown on CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap, which maps dense clusters of buy and sell orders at different levels.

Alphractal adds another layer of insight through its Alpha Price Chart, which incorporates realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment — and comes to the same conclusion. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.

Bitcoin: Alpha price. Source: Alphractal

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A decisive breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.