Bitcoin Reclaims $106K After Trump’s Israel-Iran Ceasefire — Is $110K Next?

Bitcoin bounced back above the $106,000 mark on late Monday, following a brief drop below $98,500 on Sunday, the lowest level in 45 days.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin recovered to $106K after dipping below $98.5K, following Trump’s ceasefire announcement.
• An 8% drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate raised concerns, though analysts say such volatility is not unusual.
• Markets are now pricing in higher odds of Fed rate cuts, supporting risk assets like BTC.

The recovery came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, calming market nerves after a weekend of geopolitical uncertainty.

The sudden price dip led to $193 million in liquidations of long leveraged Bitcoin positions, but that accounted for just 0.3% of total open interest.

With roughly $68 billion in leveraged positions still active, the derivatives market remains largely unaffected.

Adding to the volatility, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped 8% over the past week, from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s, fueling speculation of disrupted mining activity.

Analysts have pointed to Iran’s role in global mining, though accurate data remains elusive. Reports suggest up to 2 gigawatts of electricity may be consumed by unauthorized mining operations in the country.

However, sudden hashrate fluctuations are not uncommon. Energy-related shutdowns in the U.S. are often the cause.

Analyst Daniel Batten noted similar dips occur during extreme weather events, such as the April 22 storms in Texas and Oklahoma that temporarily slashed hashrate by 27%.

No this is not because Iran is secretly mining large swathes of Bitcoin using nuclear energy. Firstly, drops like this are common (see chart below) and are more likely due to ERCOT curtailment (being paid to shed load, or getting a price signal it's uneconomical to mine).… https://t.co/AxX3poncZ6 pic.twitter.com/XnL4YGaMCl

On the macro front, oil prices dropped sharply Monday, retreating from a Sunday peak of $77, as broader markets responded positively to the ceasefire. The S&P 500 rose 1%, while expectations grew for U.S. interest rate cuts.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current 4.25% rate through November has fallen to 8.4%.

Meanwhile, the chance of rates dropping to 3.75% or lower rose to 53%, up from 38% last week.

Whether Bitcoin can break through $110,000 remains uncertain, but the quick recovery suggests institutional appetite hasn’t weakened.

For now, traders are balancing optimism over de-escalation with caution around global and macroeconomic developments.

Crypto funds recorded $1.24 billion in inflows last week, marking the tenth consecutive week of gains and pushing year-to-date totals to a record $15.1 billion.

Despite the milestone, the pace of inflows slowed in the latter half of the week.

The report attributed the decline to the U.S. Juneteenth holiday and rising geopolitical uncertainty surrounding reports of U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.

The US remained the primary driver, contributing $1.25 billion in inflows. Canada and Germany added $20.9 million and $10.9 million, respectively.

Bitcoin attracted $1.1 billion in fresh capital, marking its second straight week of inflows despite recent price weakness, signaling continued appetite among institutional buyers.

Short-Bitcoin products, meanwhile, saw modest outflows of $1.4 million, reinforcing the bullish bias.

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