Bitcoin Resistance: Here Are The Challenges Ahead For BTC

Bitcoin has certain on-chain resistance levels coming up that could threaten future rallies. Here are the exact prices at which they lie.

As explained by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the BTC short-term holders currently have their cost basis levels between $62,000 and $65,000. The on-chain relevance metric here is the “Realized Price,” which keeps track of the average acquisition price on the Bitcoin network.

When this indicator is above the cryptocurrency’s spot price, it means the average investor in the market is underwater right now. On the other hand, it being below BTC’s value suggests the dominance of profits on the network.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of the entire userbase isn’t of interest, but only that of a specific segment of it called the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the investors who bought their coins within the past six months.

This Bitcoin cohort has historically acted erratically, easily selling whenever a major change in the market has occurred, like the emergence of a rally or crash.

Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the STH group, as well as that of a few subdivisions of it, over the past year:

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price is currently around $64,000, which means these investors are in a state of net loss. The Realized Price broken down for each segment of the cohort reveals the STHs who bought between 3 and 6 months ago are in the deepest loss as their cost basis is at $65,800.

The 1- to 3-month investors are close to the average of the whole cohort, with the metric being $64,200. The most recent buyers (1 week to 1 month) are in the best position as they acquired their coins at an average cost of $62,400 per token.

To any investor, their cost basis is naturally an important level, but the STHs especially can be sensitive to retests of it. Thus, if the price rallies to one of these levels, then it’s likely that these holders will produce some reaction.

However, as the STHs are currently carrying a loss, they may be looking forward to the retest so they can sell and get their investment back. As such, Bitcoin could feel some resistance when it travels up to these Realized Price levels.

Bitcoin had risen above the $61,000 level but appears to have seen a sharp retrace since then, as its price is already back at $59,000.