Bitcoin risks sub-$92K retest as BTC price fails to match 4% gold gains

Key points:

• Bitcoin is struggling again as gold retakes the limelight with week-to-date gains of nearly 5%.

• Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is under scrutiny amid ongoing macroeconomic shifts.

• Traders see a short-term slump amid a wider BTC price rebound.

Bitcoin (BTC) eyed fresh month-to-date lows into the May 6 Wall Street open as “directionless” crypto markets contrasted with a gold rebound.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price momentum stalling at $95,000 before the latest daily close. 

Inching closer to the key yearly open support level at $93,500, BTC/USD appeared caught in limbo while gold returned to outperform.

XAU/USD was up 1.5% on the day at the time of writing, with week-to-date gains already at 4.4%.

“Crypto implied vols remain suppressed, with front-end skew drifting back toward neutral and spot largely directionless,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

QCP noted various swings across the macro spectrum, with the dollar staying lower and emerging market currencies, especially the Taiwanese dollar, surging alongside gold.

“At the same time, the FX shakeup coincides with a nearly 3% surge in gold on Monday, as investors lean into the weaker-dollar narrative and price in geopolitical risk premia, including prospective US trade diplomacy,” it continued.

With Bitcoin yet to follow suit, QCP saw an “increasingly binary” next phase, with one outcome being that BTC “decouples from gold’s safe haven bid and relinks with broader risk proxies.”

In its own analysis, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter nonetheless saw the “first gold, then Bitcoin” narrative sticking.

“In April, Bitcoin joined the gold run, increasing correlation for the first time in months. Between April 7th and April 21st, gold surged +15% along with +12% in Bitcoin,” it observed in an X thread on May 5. 

Examining technical data, Bitcoin traders suggested that BTC/USD may be pausing within a broader comeback.

Related: Bitcoin eyes gains as macro data makes US recession 2025 ‘base case’

Evidence for this came from the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, a measure of trend strength that gave conflicting signals on longer and shorter timeframes.

#btc weekly MACD about to cross bullishly from a position of strength... pic.twitter.com/x2JjK9rHNW

Popular trader Dave The Wave revealed a bullish signal on the weekly MACD, while daily behavior confirmed a bearish crossing below the zero line.

“BTC is consolidating between last week’s high and low, awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the daily MACD is crossing bearish, signaling slowing momentum,” fellow trader Titan of Crypto summarized.

His post referred to the week’s key macro event, the meeting of the Federal Reserve to decide on interest rate changes, due on May 7.

Earlier, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, warned that the yearly open was unlikely to hold as support.

“To summarize, I'll be pleasantly surprised if the YO holds,” he told X followers. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.