Bitcoin Set Up For ‘Promising’ Q4, Next Two Weeks Could Be Decisive

As the overall market continues to move sideways, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim its local range highs as support. After short-term volatility, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut, the cryptocurrency could be poised to close the month on a positive note.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin retested the $117,000 resistance for the first time in nearly a month before being rejected. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between the $107,000-$116,000 levels since late August, falling to the local lows at the start of September.

Amid the retracement, investors expected to see another “Rektember,” as it has historically been one of BTC’s weakest months. Notably, CoinGlass data shows that BTC’s returns during September have mostly been red throughout the years, with an average negative return of 2.99%.

However, the flagship crypto’s price has had a positive streak over the last two years, recording returns of 3.91% and 7.29% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Analyst Crypto Jelle suggested that with less than two weeks of the month, Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a multi-month green run.

Last week, BTC recovered from the early September dip, breaking out of the crucial $114,000 level and turning it into support during the weekend. As a result, the cryptocurrency currently has a positive return of 6.35%, its second-best September, according to the analytics platform.

Jelle noted that “a green September has historically resulted in the next 2, 3, or even 6 consecutive months closing in the green too.” Based on this, he suggested that if Bitcoin keeps its positive performance for the rest of the month, “Q4 looks very promising for BTC.”

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin had a weekly Close above $114,000 and is retesting this area as support throughout this week’s pullbacks. This could lead to volatile downside wicks below this crucial level if this week’s close occurs above $114,000.

On the contrary, failing to hold this level in the weekly timeframe could jeopardize BTC’s chances of a third price discovery uptrend.

Overall, BTC needs to retest and hold $114k as support on the Weekly and any downside volatility below it would likely end up as a wick by the end of the week with the new Weekly Close.

Multiple market watchers anticipated some volatility in the short term, as the Federal Reserve was expected to announce its first interest rate cut of the year. Altcoin Sherpa affirmed that “25bps is the expectation here” as “25 bps = Business as Usual but UP.”

He added that this decision would likely result in a dip to the range lows or a choppy performance and “then higher in late Sept/ early October.” On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed lowered its rates by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024.

“Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement reads.

BTC retested the $114,000 support and $116,000 resistance immediately after the announcement, before stabilizing around the $115,500 level.