Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Distributing Again — Local Price Top Imminent?

After an impressive outing in the past week, the price of Bitcoin seems to be in a cool-off period, sitting nearly 4% away from its recent all-time high. This weekend’s performance somewhat looks like the typical movement of the crypto market at the end of the week in 2025.

However, the latest on-chain observation shows that a group of investors might be responsible for the sluggishness of the Bitcoin price over the past day. These recent signs point to the possibility of the bull cycle entering its final stages.

In a new post on the social media platform X, investment data firm Alphractal revealed that the Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) are starting to distribute their coins. The short-term holders are known to be the most reactive group of investors, as seen with the BTC investors shaving off their holdings following the recent increase in the Bitcoin price.

This on-chain revelation is based on the changes in the Bitcoin Supply Held By Short-Term Holders indicator, which tracks the total amount of BTC owned by investors for less than 155 days. As shown in the chart below, this metric has been dwindling over the past few weeks, signaling ongoing distribution by short-term investors.

From a historical perspective, when the supply held by STH witnesses an abrupt decline, the price of Bitcoin is likely near major cycle tops. In essence, the reactive investors offload their assets as the price increases, slowing down the coin’s demand. Alphractal noted that this is “a classic sign” that the bull cycle might be close to its final stages.

The on-chain analytics firm also highlighted that the Short-Term Holder realized price currently sits at $94,500, acting as the final support level preventing this investor group from going underwater. On the other hand, the Long-Term Holder realized price currently stands at around $33,000, suggesting a clear behavioral divergence between long-term and short-term investors.

In the end, Alpractal noted that the Bitcoin price still managed to reach new all-time highs in 2021 despite the STH distribution. Hence, the market intelligence platform believes that the BTC price still has room for some upside movement, even though macro on-chain signals and the halving cycle pattern suggest a significant correction could begin after October 2025.

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath $109,000, reflecting a 0.4% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by over 5% in the last seven days.