Bitcoin speculative appetite declines as investors seek safety

Speculative appetite is vanishing from the crypto markets, as investors are looking for safer digital asset investments following the recent wave of memecoin scams and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s hot supply metric, which measures the Bitcoin (BTC) aged one week or less, is down over 50%, from 5.9% at the end of November to just 2.3% on March 20, Glassnode data shows.

The metric’s decline signals an investor shift to safer investment positioning amid the recent market volatility, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Bitcoin hot supply metric. Source: Glassnode 

Global trade tensions and fluctuating market dynamics are making investors reconsider their strategies, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“During uncertain times, investors are not only seeking security but are also focused on rational decision-making. In many instances, that rational choice is represented by Bitcoin.”

“This trend isn't solely rooted in fear, it also reflects a more pragmatic approach to investing,” explained Lee.

Related: Bitcoin experiencing ‘shakeout,’ not end of 4-year cycle: Analysts

The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), which measures the ratio between Bitcoin and stablecoin supply, also suggests that investors are still hesitant to take on significant new positions.

BTC SSR ratio, 1-year chart. Source: Glassnode

The SSR ratio stood at an over four-month low of 8, last seen at the beginning of November 2024, when Bitcoin was trading at $67,000, just before the post-election rally took BTC to a new all-time high of $109,000.

Historically, SSR values below 10 are considered low, indicating that there is relatively low stablecoin buying power among investors, compared to Bitcoin’s market cap.

The cautious crypto investor positioning aligns with the sentiment among traditional market participants, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform.

The market analyst told Cointelegraph:

“US stock market trends often set the tone for risk-on assets like crypto, and right now, although the macro picture is still uncertain, these corrections are normal and just highlight where the real value lies as the market continues to mature and educate itself.”

Asset performance post-Trump administration takeover. Source: Thomas Fahrer

Despite the growing investor caution, Bitcoin outperformed all major global assets since US President Donald Trump’s election, including the stock market, equities, US treasuries, real estate and precious metals.

Related: Whale closes $516M 40x Bitcoin short, pockets $9.4M profit in 8 days

Speculative appetite is “fading” among crypto investors

The cooldown in Bitcoin’s hot supply metric shows faltering speculative appetite, according to technical analyst Kyledoops, who wrote in a March 21 X post:

“Speculative appetite is fading, and the market is cooling off.”

“This means fewer fresh coins in circulation, reduced liquidity, and lower market participation,” added the analyst.

Despite the current lack of risk appetite, analysts remain optimistic on Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the rest of 2025, with price predictions ranging from $160,000 to above $180,000.

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