Bitcoin Starts July On A Bearish Note, Will CPI Data Change The Narrative This Week?

The beginning of July has not been bullish for the Bitcoin and crypto market as earlier expected due to a number of events that have shaken the market. For example, the Spot Ethereum ETFs did not debut on July 2nd as expected, and the US and German governments have been reportedly selling large tranches of BTC. However, a turn in the tide could be coming for Bitcoin and crypto at large as the CPI data is expected to drop on July 11.

Crypto analyst CrypNuevo took to X (formerly Twitter) to share their thoughts on where they expect the Bitcoin price to be headed next. Pointing to the upcoming CPI data, CrypNuevo explains that a rate cut could be imminent in the CPI data that is expected to be released on Thursday, July 11.

With the inflation data expected to come in lower, this could point to an immediate rate cut or at least a further rate cut by the Fed going forward. Naturally, such rate cuts would be good for the Bitcoin price as they have been in the past.

“A rate cut or an imminent rate cut announcement would be greatly received in the crypto market and I believe that we would see prices going up aggressively in that case,” the analyst said. “I don’t discard that if we get a good CPI on Thursday, we see that reversal for that day, because the market tends to price-in what’s to come from the FED,” CrypNuevo explains further further.

For the analysis, the crypto analyst used the BTC 1-Day chart which showed a rather peculiar wick that the analysis expects to be filled. This wick is the $53,400 wick that occurred in early July before the market recovery, but the analyst does not believe that it is over for the price. Firstly, the analyst expects at least 50% of the wick to be filled, something that already happened over the weekend when the price fell to $54,000.

On to the topic of the wick being 100% filled, it could be bullish for the price as the crypto analyst expects that falling to this level could see the price bounce from here. However, there is also the possibility that the price fills this wick and then falls further down.

In such a case, the crypto analyst believes that $51,700 would hold for the Bitcoin price. This means that this would be the next support level for bulls to hold. A recovery from here would likely see the price barrel toward $60,000, but the analyst maintains that $60,000 is now resistance for Bitcoin.