Bitcoin STH Average Cost Basis At $90,950 — Why Is It Relevant?

The Bitcoin price continues to dance within the newly formed $80,000 – $85,000 range, showing some level of indecisiveness in its movement. Since the premier cryptocurrency lost its hold above $90,000, investors have wondered whether the ongoing correction is a “buy the dip” opportunity or the market top is in.

While there is no surefire way to put these doubts away, on-chain data can provide relevant insights into what is to come. The latest on-chain data suggests the highlighted level below is the one to watch before investors return to the market.

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared that it might not be technically secure to reenter the Bitcoin market at the current price. This analysis is based on the movement of the Bitcoin price relative to the current value of the short-term holders’ (STH) average cost basis.

The STH average cost basis metric estimates the average price at which short-term holders (investors who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days) acquired their coins. It represents a psychological level for BTC investors and could act as a reference point for price analysis, especially during bull cycles.

Bitcoin usually trades above the short-term holders’ average cost basis during bull markets, signaling substantial buying pressure and optimistic sentiment from short-term investors. On the flip side, when the price of BTC falls beneath this cost basis — as seen in the ongoing correction, it implies that short-term investors are at a loss, which could lead to a sell-off and precipitate significant bearish pressure.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price is currently 6% below the short-term holders’ average cost basis at $90,950. With the flagship cryptocurrency beneath the realized price of short-term holders, the odds are that BTC price could face further selling pressure as the investor cohort looks to minimize their loss.

Using this logic, Maartunn noted that investors might want to wait till the price of Bitcoin climbs above the STH average cost price before reentering the market. Interestingly, the short-term investors appear to still be loading their bags. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed in a post on X that short-term holders have purchased more than 35,000 BTC in the past 4 days.

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just below the $86,000 mark, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.